Approval Probability On the Rise
Analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas from Bloomberg ETF believe that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on cryptocurrencies XRP, Solana, Dogecoin, and Litecoin have a strong chance of receiving approval from US regulators. According to their analysis, Litecoin ETFs, submitted by Canary Capital and Grayscale, are the most likely to be approved with a probability of 90%. Dogecoin follows with 75%, while products linked to Solana and XRP have respective approval chances of 70% and 65%.
The Trump Effect on Digital Asset Regulation
Since Donald Trump took office in January, signals sent by the US government have become increasingly favorable towards cryptocurrencies. This marks a notable change from previous years, where the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) hindered the growth of many financial products related to digital assets. Trump’s election has reshuffled the deck, prompting several issuers to file applications for ETFs based on cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The change is striking: prior to the November presidential election, Balchunas notes that the approval chances for these ETFs, with the exception of Litecoin, were less than 5%. Today, the probabilities have skyrocketed, signaling a pro-crypto shift within regulators.
Progressive Recognition of Cryptocurrencies at the SEC
The increasing involvement of the SEC in regulating digital assets is evident with the appointment of Republican Commissioner Hester Peirce as head of a working group dedicated to cryptocurrencies. Her goal is to clarify the legal status of different classes of digital assets and establish more coherent regulation. This work will be particularly crucial for XRP, which is still mired in a long-standing legal dispute with the SEC. Seyffart believes that until this litigation is resolved, the approval of an XRP ETF will remain uncertain.
A Regulatory Process in Motion
The first tangible signals of this regulatory development are expected to appear soon. Seyffart predicts that the SEC could officially recognize filed applications for XRP and Dogecoin ETFs as early as this week. Simultaneously, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe BZX) has already submitted listing requests for these new financial products, representing issuers such as Bitwise, 21Shares, and Canary.
2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for crypto ETFs in the United States. If these approvals materialize, they could mark a historic turning point, facilitating institutional adoption of new cryptocurrencies, well beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
