A new unease is shaking the predictive markets. A user on Polymarket, who had pocketed over $400,000 by betting on Nicolás Maduro’s removal, has simply vanished from the platform. Their account is now inaccessible, sparking suspicions of insider trading on high-risk geopolitical bets.
A perfectly synchronized bet with the events
The account in question, identified by the address ‘0x31a5..’, had wagered about $32,000 on Maduro’s capture and removal just hours before the American operation was made public. When news of the Venezuelan leader’s arrest by US forces broke, the bet proved extremely profitable.
According to archived data, the user didn’t settle for one scenario. They also placed bets on the presence of American forces in Venezuela, a possible invasion before the end of January, and the activation of war powers by Donald Trump. A cluster of coherent bets, all aligned with the same geopolitical outcome.
$437,000 cashed in… then vanished
On the Polygon blockchain, the account-linked address received about $436,700 in USDC from Polymarket’s internal exchange, a few days before the official announcement. Less than twelve hours later, nearly $437,800 left the wallet.
Shortly after, the account page on Polymarket became inaccessible. Instead, an elusive error message: ‘Oops… we didn’t forecast this.’ Other users’ profiles remain perfectly visible. The disappearance seems targeted.
Polymarket’s radio silence
At this point, Polymarket has provided no public explanation. It’s impossible to know if the account was deactivated by the platform, deleted at the user’s request, or rendered inaccessible due to a technical glitch. Polymarket’s privacy policy allows users to request the deletion of their personal data, but the timing raises questions.
In a normal context, the episode would be anecdotal. But it comes after several similar incidents involving highly calculated bets on major political events, sometimes made by newly created accounts.
Predictive markets under political pressure
The case fuels a deeper critique. As predictive markets gain influence, their potential vulnerability to information leaks becomes a political issue. Some US lawmakers now advocate for strengthened oversight, even restrictions on access to these platforms for public officials and their staff.
The situation is particularly sensitive as other recent bets draw attention, including very aggressive wagers on an American strike against Iran, placed by accounts with a near-perfect success history.
A systemic credibility issue
For Polymarket and its competitors, the issue goes beyond a single vanished user. The promise of predictive markets relies on the idea that prices aggregate public information. If the suspicion of insider information becomes structural, this promise collapses.
The opacity surrounding the disappearance of the ‘0x31a5’ account only deepens the doubt. Until platforms clarify their monitoring, transparency, and governance mechanisms, each major geopolitical bet now runs the risk of being perceived not as a collective anticipation, but as a possible reflection of knowledge reserved for a few insiders.
