More than 200 listed companies now hold over 780,000 BTC, worth over 90 billion dollars, in a massive Bitcoin treasury strategy fueled by the post-Trump surge.
Fred Thiel (MARA) warns: this accumulation at the top could lead to a correction if demand weakens, especially as whales begin to sell off their positions.
Unlike ETFs, Bitcoin treasury companies are vulnerable to mNAV drop, which could force chain sales and trigger a crash similar to the ICO burst.
Une course aux réserves crypto qui pourrait mal finir
By 2025, accumulating bitcoins has become the new standard for listed companies. Since Donald Trump’s election, the price of BTC has soared, prompting over 200 companies to embark on a crypto reserve strategy. As a result, more than 780,000 BTC are now held by companies, totaling over 90 billion dollars at the current price.
But Fred Thiel, CEO of MARA Holdings, the first publicly traded miner by market cap and the second-largest bitcoin holder behind Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), is not convinced. During the announcement of their quarterly results, he issued a stark warning:
Ils ne peuvent pas tous réussir.
Une spirale de concurrence… et de ventes?
Behind this statement lies a harsh reality: the more companies rush into Bitcoin, the less sustainable the benefits become. Thiel believes this frenzy could even become a factor in a downturn if demand slows down.
Especially as some signals are worrisome. The whales, those historical large holders, are selling off. And they are doing so at the peak of the market, which could precede a sharp correction.
Les gens qui construisent des trésoreries achètent au sommet. Et à un moment, la demande va fléchir.
Les limites du modèle “Bitcoin en réserve”
Unlike an ETF like those from BlackRock or Fidelity, a “Bitcoin treasury company” relies directly on its crypto balance sheet. For investors, a crucial indicator is the mNAV (Multiple of Net Asset Value), which compares the company’s value to the value of its bitcoins.
But what happens when the mNAV collapses, or goes negative, as was the case for Grayscale in the past?
Ces entreprises devront vendre leurs bitcoins, prévient Thiel. Et si les ventes s’enchaînent, l’effet boule de neige pourrait précipiter une correction du marché.
“Un air d’ICO”… avec des milliards en jeu
Thiel goes further: according to him, this dynamic resembles the ICOs of 2017, when everyone wanted a piece of the cake, until the bubble burst.
Trop de bonnes choses tuent les rendements pour tout le monde.
Implicitly, this is also a way for MARA to stand out. “Ce qui nous différencie? La plupart de nos bitcoins, on les a minés, pas achetés.” A clear message to investors.
Une correction inévitable?
For now, MARA displays outstanding financial health: EBITDA, revenue, and net profits at historical records. The company even raised nearly 941 million dollars to strengthen its position.
But despite these results, a shadow looms:
Je ne pense pas que Bitcoin va chuter de 80%, mais une baisse de 20 à 30% est tout à fait possible. – Fred Thiel
In a market where even giants sell at the peak, caution does not seem to be back in style yet.
