Bitcoin retreats towards $91,000, nearing a recent CME gap between $91,600 and $90,600, a historically revisited price zone.
A second older CME gap around $88,000 increases the risk of a correction, providing clear technical targets for traders in case of further decline.
Bitcoin ETFs, notably BlackRock’s IBIT, also show unfilled gaps, signaling an increasing convergence between spot, futures, and ETFs.
The first CME gap just below the market
The recent drop in bitcoin almost perfectly aligns with a weekend gap on CME futures. Friday closed around $90,600, reopening near $91,600 on Sunday. This interim zone has never been traded.
In the world of bitcoin futures, these gaps are closely monitored. The CME doesn’t trade continuously: a daily pause and weekend closure create “empty” price zones when the spot moves quickly. Historically, bitcoin has a tendency to retest these levels, sometimes in just a few days.
As the price nears $91,000, technical pressure intensifies. At this point, a 1.6% drop would be enough to fill this first gap, located around $90,600.
A second lower gap around $88,000
But that’s not the only level to watch. An older second CME gap remains open around $88,000, formed around New Year’s. This implies a more significant correction, about 4% from current levels.
This dual technical reference creates a clear structure for traders. As long as these gaps remain open, they serve as natural targets in case of continued weakness. There’s no guarantee they will be filled, but their mere existence already influences market positioning.
A self-reinforcing phenomenon
The bitcoin behavior towards CME gaps resembles other well-known dynamics, like the ‘max pain’ theory on options. These are not immutable laws but collective benchmarks. The more they are observed, the more they tend to become self-fulfilling.
Traders anticipate a return to the gap because it’s there. By positioning themselves accordingly, they increase the likelihood that prices will indeed head there. The reasoning is circular but often effective in the short term.
Yet, Bitcoin seems to be bouncing back slightly, recovering the $92,000 zone for now.
ETFs also enter the equation
New development: this logic extends beyond futures. The ETF behavior begins to reflect the same technical patterns. IBIT, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, also has several unfilled gaps around the $50 and $48 zones.
As ETFs play a central role in Bitcoin’s market structure and compete in influence with CME futures, these technical levels become new reference points. The spot market, futures, and ETFs are gradually converging towards a common framework.
In the short term, the message is clear. As long as the CME gaps remain open, the bias remains fragile. Bitcoin avoided a sharp break, but technical gravity continues to pull prices downwards.
