The year 2025 ended with an unprecedented signal for Strategy. For the first time since adopting bitcoin as a treasury asset in August 2020, the company’s stock plummeted for six consecutive months. A statistical anomaly that sharply contrasts with past cycles and raises questions about the current market perception.
An unprecedented negative sequence for Strategy
Indeed, for the first time in 5 years, Strategy displayed negative monthly performances without interruption from July to December 2025. The numbers speak for themselves: -16.78% in August, -16.36% in October, -34.26% in November, then another -14.24% in December. A heavy series marked by both its magnitude and regularity.
Historically, the corrections in the stock were often violent but brief. Previous drawdowns, especially during the bear market of 2022, were followed by spectacular rebounds, sometimes exceeding 40% in a few months. This time, no relief rally interrupted the fall. The market seems to have undergone a gradual reassessment rather than a one-time capitulation.
Underperformance against Bitcoin and Nasdaq
The uniqueness of this sequence also lies in the comparison with benchmark assets. Over the last six months of 2025, Strategy’s stock lost nearly 59% and shows a decline of about 49% over a year. During the same period, Bitcoin has significantly outperformed, limiting its annual losses to less than 10%.
The contrast is even more striking compared to traditional equity markets. In 2025, the Nasdaq 100 gained over 20%, highlighting Strategy’s isolation within the index. While the company is often seen as a stock proxy for Bitcoin, this correlation seems to have weakened at the expense of the stock.
Is BTC accumulation no longer enough?
However, this stock weakness comes at a time when Strategy has never stopped accumulating. At the end of December, Michael Saylor announced the purchase of 1,229 BTC for about $108.8 million. In total, the company now holds 672,497 bitcoins, acquired for approximately $50.44 billion, with an average price below current market levels.
But this strategy, long perceived as bold and visionary, now seems integrated into stock prices. Investors no longer automatically value each new purchase as a positive catalyst. Dilution from successive financings, increased sensitivity to rates, and persistent correlation with tech markets weigh more heavily in the equation.
A change in regime for the stock
The absence of a rebound over six months suggests that Strategy may be going through a change in stock regime. The market no longer treats the stock as a leveraged option on Bitcoin, but as a complex structure mixing debt, dilution, and directional exposure.
For Strategy, the challenge for 2026 will be clear: prove that its model can once again attract stock investors, beyond just the accumulation of bitcoin. Without this, even a BTC rebound may no longer be enough to sustainably reverse the stock’s trend.
