Bitcoin remains stuck around $113,000 before Jerome Powell’s speech, with a slight 0.74% decrease in 24 hours and maximum anticipation regarding the Fed’s direction.
Investors fear a hawkish tone that could trigger a fall for Bitcoin and crypto, while a more dovish speech could reignite risk appetite.
American economic signals are contradictory: CPI down but high PPI and service inflation, leaving markets uncertain despite a 74.4% probability of a rate cut in September.
Bitcoin and the market hold their breath before Jackson Hole
Just hours before Jerome Powell’s speech, Bitcoin hovers around $113,000. The Jackson Hole event acts as a countdown for the markets: every word from the Fed chief can trigger a wave of volatility.
In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin slipped by 0.74%, Ethereum maintaining at $4,300. Nothing dramatic, but the market holds its breath. Because Powell, eagerly awaited, could set the tone for the global economic return.
A market in a precarious balance
Investors anticipate a rather hawkish speech. In other words, a Fed maintaining a tough line on inflation. A scenario that could shift markets towards risk-off logic, where capital flees risky assets like cryptos. Some analysts even talk about a potential -30% for Bitcoin if the tone is too assertive.
Conversely, a more dovish surprise, hinting at a clearer rate cut, could ignite purchases. For now, consensus remains locked in uncertainty, with consolidation prevailing.
The contradictory signals of the American economy
Recent data does not help to decide. July’s CPI came out lower than expected, and jobless claims slightly increased. Two figures arguing for inflation slowdown.
But on the opposite, the PPI (Producer Price Index) came out higher, and service inflation remains stubborn. Add to this Trump’s tariffs, which maintain pressure on prices: the macro picture remains blurred.
Wall Street continues to bet on a rate cut in September, with a probability of 74.4% for a -0.25% according to the CME FedWatch Tool. But certainty wanes in the face of these mixed signals.
The follow-up: inflation, Fed, and ETF flows
If Powell confirms a tough stance at Jackson Hole, the shock could linger. Otherwise, investors will keep an eye on the next US inflation figures, Fed meetings, and incoming flows of crypto ETFs.
The return promises to be a real test for Bitcoin: a natural halving cycle or a heavy macroeconomic era, the king of cryptos will soon find out if its $113,000 are just a threshold… or the edge of a cliff.
