Speculation surrounding the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, has reached new heights as the highly anticipated HBO documentary approaches. Betting trends on popular prediction platform Polymarket took a drastic turn following new information over the weekend.
Len Sassaman, from favorite to outsider
Len Sassaman, a respected cryptographer and once a top contender in the speculation surrounding Nakamoto’s identity, saw his odds plummet on Polymarket after an unexpected statement from his widow, Meredith L. Patterson. Sassaman, who passed away in 2011, briefly led the bets with a 55% probability of being revealed as the creator of Bitcoin in the documentary. However, after Patterson denied any secret identity connection between her late husband and Bitcoin, his chances dropped below 10%.
In an interview with DLNews, Patterson was clear: “I wonder if I’m not interfering with prediction markets by honestly answering questions, but to put it briefly: fuck them.” She also clarified that the documentary producers had never contacted her about her husband, further casting doubt on the theory.
Speculation and memecoins
The excitement around Sassaman quickly spread on social media, leading to a wave of memecoins named after him and even his cat. These humorous cryptocurrencies emerged on various blockchains, particularly on Solana, where Patterson shared an address to receive token donations.
Other contenders
Sassaman is not the only one subject to speculation. Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and an early developer of Bitcoin, has also been suggested as a potential revelation in the documentary. The idea was put forward by pro-Bitcoin entrepreneur Samson Mow, although Back himself quickly dismissed the hypothesis, tweeting that he did not know who Satoshi was. Nick Szabo, a pioneer of smart contracts, has frequently been mentioned as a potential candidate for Nakamoto and, at the time of writing, currently leads the bets with a score above 20%.
A mysterious revelation and millions at stake
Despite the lack of concrete leaks regarding the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, relentless rumors and theories have been enough to drive significant capital movements on Polymarket. Within a few days, millions of dollars have been wagered on various candidates, with nearly $6 million at stake on who will be revealed in the documentary. As of this Tuesday afternoon, the ‘Other/Multiple’ category dominates the bets with a 62% probability, followed by Nick Szabo at nearly 21%, Adam Back at just under 10%, and Len Sassaman at 8.5%.
An unsolved mystery?
While the Bitcoin world continues to speculate on the identity of its creator, the HBO documentary scheduled for release at 4 a.m. on Wednesday could bring years of conjecture to an end – or perhaps add another layer of mystery to an enigma that has captivated the crypto community for over a decade.
