Amidst escalating trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, all eyes are on the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). According to Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, a Chinese response to US tariff measures could trigger a massive capital flight towards cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin.
The yuan devaluation as a trigger for Bitcoin
The scenario described by Hayes is grounded in historical leverage: the devaluation of the yuan. If Beijing chooses to artificially lower the value of its currency to offset the economic impact of announced US tariff hikes, it could reignite investor interest in digital assets. This mechanism is not unprecedented. In 2013, 2015, and 2019, episodes of yuan depreciation were accompanied by a resurgence of interest in Bitcoin. In August 2015, for example, China implemented a sharp devaluation of nearly 2% in a single day, the largest in decades. Although the direct links between these currency movements and Bitcoin prices are still debated, analysts observed an increase in demand for the cryptocurrency during the same period.
Bitcoin, a safe-haven amidst monetary instability
Ben Zhou, CEO of Bybit, confirms that every depreciation of the yuan has historically favored a migration of Chinese capital towards Bitcoin. This phenomenon is explained by a desire to bypass capital controls, preserve wealth, and escape domestic financial instability.
In a 2019 report, Grayscale had already highlighted the impact of yuan depreciation on the crypto markets, observing a bullish movement of Bitcoin of nearly 20% in a week when the Chinese currency fell below the symbolic threshold of 7 yuan per dollar.
Beyond speculation, this behavior reflects a loss of confidence in monetary institutions. Significant devaluation undermines the credibility of central banks and drives some investors to seek refuge in decentralized assets, which are inherently more resilient to state manipulations.
The geopolitical context revives the crypto thesis
The recent statement by the US President promising an escalation of trade sanctions against China has heightened economic tensions. Beijing has responded firmly, announcing that it will “fight to the end” and take countermeasures to defend its interests.
In this climate of trade confrontation, a Chinese monetary response seems plausible. And if this response takes the form of a new yuan devaluation, it could very well serve as a catalyst for an influx of capital towards Bitcoin—and perhaps even mark the beginning of a new positive phase for 2025.
