As the US presidential election approaches, bets on a victory for Donald Trump are intensifying, reaching an unprecedented level. On Polymarket, the leading decentralized prediction market platform, the odds for a second term for Trump have surged to over 66%, supported by a series of spectacular bets placed by a mysterious investor nicknamed ‘zxgngl’.
Record Optimism for Trump’s Chances on Polymarket
By injecting an additional $2 million in USDC, this ‘whale’ has increased the perceived probability of the former president’s victory. Since October 11, they have accumulated over 11 million ‘Yes’ shares, betting on Trump’s electoral success.
The Rise of Predictive Markets in Elections
Unlike traditional polls, decentralized predictive markets like Polymarket capture real-time financial engagement and investor intuitions. According to Elon Musk, these markets are more accurate than conventional polls, reflecting a more nuanced public sentiment.
After a reversal in favor of Trump at the beginning of October, the odds have continued to rise, indicating increased confidence in his campaign. This trend, supported by massive transactions, suggests an alternative to conventional political forecasting methods, which are often criticized for their lack of flexibility and transparency.
The Role of ‘Whales’: Between Personal Convictions and Speculative Strategies
The profile of ‘zxgngl’ is intriguing. This investor alone has committed $7.22 million to support Trump, with a potential profit of $256,000. Another mysterious figure from France, ‘Fredi9999’, and their four other aliases, has also had a significant impact on the market by buying tens of millions of ‘Yes’ shares, pushing Trump’s odds above 60% as early as mid-October. However, zxgngl’s funds come from Binance, while Fredi9999’s accounts are linked to Kraken, suggesting a divergence of interests and strategies, as the French individual had promised Polymarket not to create any more accounts.
This accumulation of bets could indicate unwavering confidence in Trump’s re-election. According to Domer, a political bettor on Polymarket, Fredi9999 is a ‘true believer,’ wealthy and willing to bet colossal sums, fueled by a confirmation bias where each new piece of information strengthens their certainty.
A Booming Market
The US elections are not only driving Polymarket, but also boosting all predictive betting platforms. In the third quarter of 2024, the betting volume exploded, recording a growth of 565%, increasing from just over $400 million to $3.1 billion. Polymarket dominates this sector with over 99% market share in September. This surge is explained by the convergence of financial and political interests, placing predictive markets at the center of electoral speculation.
By capturing major financial movements, these platforms offer a dynamic and sometimes prescient view of political developments. Beyond the outcome of this election, this wave of interest could mark a turning point in how we interpret and predict political phenomena (and others) in an increasingly digitized world.
