The S&P 500 has just reached a new all-time high, hitting 6,173 points, after a rapid surge of over 23% since April. This is not just a technical rebound: it’s a clear statement against the doubts that lingered since the surprise announcement of new customs tariffs by Donald Trump.
What seemed like a sharp decline in April, hitting a 15-month low on the 7th, has turned into an impressive rally, driven by a return of confidence in the markets and a fierce appetite from investors for stocks.
Un retour au sommet en pleine tempête politique
At the heart of the chaos: Trump’s “Liberation Day” plan, aiming to deeply reshape global trade relations through a series of tariff hikes. The immediate result: extreme volatility, downward revisions of global growth forecasts, and a shockwave across financial markets.
But a few weeks later, the tide turned. White House indecisiveness, last-minute concessions, and the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran have calmed the markets. Inflation remains in check, employment is steady, and the American economic engine holds firm.
Le retour des fondamentaux : buybacks, tech et big players
If the S&P 500 shines today, it’s not just due to Trump. Massive buybacks, strong performances of Nasdaq companies, and individual enthusiasm have reignited the flame. Palantir explodes with +87%, Robinhood climbs 147%, and Super Micro Computer gains over 55% since early April. A complete turnaround: tech giants, initially leading the fall, now drive the recovery.
On the industrial side, the story is the same: Howmet Aerospace gains 62%, Uber 54%, GE Vernova also rises 54%. RTX and Deere also have a good year with 23% and 20% increases respectively.
Behind the rally, some lingering clouds
But beware of euphoria. Behind this idyllic picture, some signals remain red. The dollar falls to levels not seen in three years. The bond market remains under tension. And most importantly, US debt is increasingly concerning. The most cautious analysts warn: bank credit is slowing, credit card defaults are increasing, signs that indicate a possible fatigue.
Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer at Morgan Stanley, captures the general sentiment well:
The market does not react twice to the same shock. It digests, moves on. But the fundamentals remain fragile.
En route vers de nouveaux sommets ?
According to Citi, the S&P 500 could climb another 2.5% by the end of 2025. But for that to happen, growth must hold, trade tensions must not escalate, and euphoria must not mask the reality for too long: sometimes overpriced markets, and an uncertain macro environment.
In 2025, the US stock market is no stranger to crises. But this time, it may be AI, more than Trump, that will decide the next chapter.
