MSCI has decided to not exclude digital asset treasury (DAT) companies from its indices for the time being, and the market immediately reacted. The stock Strategy (MSTR) surged by approximately 6%, relieved of a risk that weighed heavily on its valuation. But behind this reassuring announcement lies a major restriction, largely overlooked, that significantly limits the medium-term upside potential and dampens the rise of MSTR.
MSCI Indices: An Immediate Threat Averted for Strategy and DAT
The MSCI decision removes a looming threat. An exclusion from the indices would have forced many index and institutional funds to mechanically sell their positions, suppressing demand for Strategy and its counterparts. For a company whose stock identity is now inseparable from bitcoin on its balance sheet, the impact would have been severe.
Analysts understandably praised this reprieve. Some even speak of a tactical victory, with Strategy apparently successfully defending its status within the indices despite its atypical operational activity. The message is clear: for now, MSCI is not changing the rules of the game.
The relief is real, but incomplete. MSCI’s announcement includes a key restriction: the index will no longer integrate increases in the Number of Shares (NOS). Essentially, when companies like Strategy issue new shares, these additional shares will no longer be considered in the index weightings calculation.
This is a fundamental change. Previously, each share issuance automatically triggered passive purchases during index rebalancing. This automatic demand provided strong support for the stock price, especially in a model where dilution is used to accumulate more bitcoin.
With the freeze of NOS, this mechanism disappears. No more forced purchases linked to share issuances. Dilution no longer creates additional passive demand.
A Progressive Decision, Now Assumed
This direction did not come out of nowhere. In September 2025, MSCI initiated a consultation on how to handle Metaplanet, already mentioning the NOS without explicitly announcing a global change. At that time, the increase in the number of shares was put aside for this specific case.
In October 2025, the scope widened to all DAT companies. For the first time, MSCI specified that it would continue not to implement increases in NOS, FIF, and DIF for these companies. The recent announcement merely confirms an already ongoing suspension.
Less Risk, But Also Less Fuel
The assessment is nuanced. The primary downside risk, a straightforward exclusion from the indices, vanishes in the short term, at least until the next consultation. But one of the most potent bullish drivers of the Strategy model is now capped.
Without passive flows related to share issuances, performance will rely more on the bitcoin price and the market’s appetite for this type of hybrid vehicle. The structure remains intact, but the stock leverage effect is diminished.
For investors, the message is clear: the worst has been averted, but the euphoria is not justified. The story continues, with a now clearly visible ceiling.
