JPMorgan observes a clear shift of investors towards gold, to the detriment of Bitcoin, due to its volatility and strong correlation with technology stocks.
Gold reaches a record $9 trillion in global investments, driven by structural demand and stable flows into gold ETFs.
Despite strong fundamentals, Bitcoin appears less convincing as a safe haven, struggling to compete with gold’s historical credibility in the face of macroeconomic risks.
JPMorgan observes a net rotation of investors towards gold
The promise of Bitcoin as ‘digital gold’ seems to be fading. In a recent report, analysts at JPMorgan, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, observe that the cryptocurrency is losing ground to gold, which has become the favorite of cautious investors facing systemic risks. While the yellow metal surpasses the $3,100 per ounce threshold, Bitcoin is facing a series of headwinds: persistent volatility, high correlation with technology stocks, and significant capital outflows from ETFs.
JPMorgan’s analysis is based on an underlying trend: the revaluation of the ‘debasement trade’, a strategy to protect against monetary erosion through assets considered resistant to inflation and sovereign debt. While Bitcoin managed to attract attention with its promise of algorithmic scarcity, it is gold that is now asserting itself as the main beneficiary of this defensive logic.
Gold shines in the markets, driven by central banks
Gold accumulation has now reached a historic record. Approximately $9 trillion, or 3.5% of global financial assets, are invested in this metal, split between $4 trillion for central banks and $5 trillion for private investors. This rise is characterized by its stability: unlike positions in Bitcoin futures contracts, which have become negative since January, gold futures have remained strong, a sign of demand that is more structural than speculative.
Gold ETFs have experienced continuous inflows since February, while Bitcoin-backed index funds have seen withdrawals. This movement reflects a relative loss of confidence in Bitcoin’s ability to act as a cushion against macroeconomic shocks.
Bitcoin remains supported by its fundamentals, but less convincing
Nevertheless, Bitcoin still maintains strong technical fundamentals. Its current price, around $82,000, remains well above its estimated production cost of $62,000, a level historically considered a floor. JPMorgan also values its ‘volatility-adjusted value’ at around $71,000, taking as a reference the $5 trillion worth of gold held by private investors, while factoring in the increased risk associated with the digital asset.
These levels – $62,000 and $71,000 – could therefore serve as support zones in a more hesitant market. But in the face of increasing demand for stability, Bitcoin struggles to compete with gold, whose millennia-old status as a safe haven is once again relevant.
