Bitcoin is continuing its decline as the American markets remain closed for a few more hours, dropping below $91,000.
Abrupt End to a Rally Fueled by Flows
Bitcoin is starting the week with difficulty after a tense weekend. The dynamics of spot bitcoin ETFs in the United States dramatically reversed on Friday, with these products recording nearly $395 million in net outflows, ending a series of four consecutive sessions of capital inflows. A clear sign of a return to risk aversion in a context of growing geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland and the prospect of a trade conflict between Washington and Brussels.
According to market data, almost all of the outflows were concentrated in a few large funds. Fidelity led the movement with over $200 million in withdrawals, followed by Grayscale, Bitwise, and Ark & 21Shares. BlackRock, however, was an exception, with modest inflows that were insufficient to offset the overall outflow.
This reversal comes after a very positive week. Spot bitcoin ETFs attracted over $1.8 billion in four days, accompanying a rise in the price of bitcoin to nearly $96,000. But this recovery proved to be fragile, dependent on a suddenly much more hostile macroeconomic environment.
Geopolitical Shock as a Catalyst
The trigger is clearly political. Donald Trump’s repeated threats to impose new tariffs on several NATO allies, in connection with his diplomatic offensive on Greenland, have revived the specter of a transatlantic trade war. In response, the European Union has hinted at preparing significant retaliatory measures, even mentioning restrictions on American services in Europe.
This climate caused shockwaves in the markets over the weekend. Bitcoin dropped from around $95,000 to $92,500 in a few hours, before extending its decline below $91,000 on Tuesday morning. For many institutional investors, ETFs served as an immediate adjustment variable in the face of uncertainty.
An Already Fragile Market
These outflows do not occur in a vacuum. Market sentiment had already deteriorated after the unexpected postponement of the key session of the American Senate on crypto market regulation. For investors, this delay reinforced the impression of an unstable political environment, where regulatory visibility remains uncertain despite promises of clarity.
In this context, the geopolitical shock acts as an amplifier. ETFs, intended to offer a simple and liquid exposure to bitcoin, also become a quick disengagement channel when overall risk increases. The reaction seen on Friday reflects this defensive logic.
How Far Can the Correction Go?
Some analysts believe that if macroeconomic pressure persists, Bitcoin could revisit significantly lower levels, between $67,000 and $74,000. This scenario is contingent on a sustained escalation of trade tensions and a tightening of the global financial climate.
In the short term, uncertainty prevails. With no concrete details on American trade policy and the European response, markets are unfolding reactively. One thing is clear, though: after being a driver of the uptrend, spot bitcoin ETFs have once again become a barometer of investor nervousness. And for now, this barometer clearly leans towards caution.
