Welcome to this new edition of our weekly newsletter. Every week, we provide you with in-depth analysis and insights on the latest cryptocurrency market news to help you navigate and make informed decisions in this exciting universe.
Bitcoin: Time to React
This week, Bitcoin experienced a drop and retested the lower bound of our weekly consolidation (explained in the previous newsletter), located between $61,000 🟢 (previous cycle’s historical resistance, now turned support 🟠) and $71,000 🔴.
This drop accelerated when Mt. Gox announced the beginning of customer reimbursements in early July 2024 (thus, very soon).
Mt. Gox will be reimbursing over 140,000 BTC and Bitcoin Cash after years of delays. This distribution of over $9 billion raises concerns about a potential upcoming selling pressure on Bitcoin, as customers were able to purchase their BTC for less than $700.
In comparison, Bitcoin Spot ETFs have brought in approximately $15 billion in net inflows since their launch, which has propelled the price of Bitcoin from around $40,000 to $70,000.
Therefore, it will be absolutely critical to monitor Mt. Gox’s on-chain movements to gauge the market’s reaction and even understand if Mt. Gox will adhere to the announced timeline.
From a technical perspective, a positive sign would be to close (weekly closing) above $64,000 🔵 and use this weekly level as support.
Until this happens, we can assume that Bitcoin remains weak and is consolidating on a support level that it has already retested multiple times. If Bitcoin were to break its weekly consolidation (between $61,000 and $71,000) to the downside, the first target would be $51,000.
Ethereum: Retesting Key Levels
Ethereum also dropped to retest the key level of $3,200-$3,250 🔵.
This level is crucial because it represents a strong horizontal level on a weekly and daily basis, and it is also near the last monthly/weekly low, making it an interesting location to defend the medium to long-term bullish trend.
For now, Ethereum seems to be reacting well at the lower bound of its compression (the indicated key level). A breakout above $3,900 or below $3,000 should give us a clearer direction on a weekly basis. Until then, we can expect more compression/consolidation (and therefore, noise).
The trading of Ethereum Spot ETFs is expected to be launched in early July, as mentioned in the previous newsletter. However, some experts lean more towards the week of July 8th instead of July 1st, given the latest administrative developments at the SEC. It is likely that the market will try to anticipate this event, so be cautious about being too aggressive during the ETF listing (or just before), as volatility is expected to be significant.
Altcoins: Persistent Weakness
Despite clear graphical weakness, some altcoins are rebounding while others continue to consolidate at important medium-to-long-term levels.
Among the outperformers of the week, we can highlight:
- Solana, which is gaining momentum following the announcement of possible Solana Spot ETFs (21Shares and VanEck). However, the approval of Solana Spot ETFs in the United States remains distant and unlikely for this year.
- Kaspa, which also stood out by reaching a new all-time high and ranking 27th in terms of market capitalization, a feat that very few cryptocurrencies have achieved recently.
- Several memecoins like WIF, BONK, and BRETT, which have shown strength despite a period of uncertainty.
CryptoPicsou’s Note
As mentioned last week, it is important to take a step back. Bitcoin and Ethereum are in a long consolidation phase and are currently in a monthly and weekly bullish trend that remains intact.
Patience is key until the Bitcoin metronome breaks its consolidation to the upside or downside. This breakout should give us a clearer view of the trend to come in the coming weeks/months.
The key levels to watch on a monthly and weekly basis are:
- Bitcoin: $61,000 – $71,000 (consolidation boundaries)
- Ethereum: $3,000 – $3,900 (compression boundaries)
Regarding altcoins, it may be interesting to list in advance the ones that interest you the most for the rest of the cycle and favor the most resilient ones: those that suffer the least and rebound the most during favorable phases on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Implementing a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy on these altcoins can be opportunistic if you are not trying to time the market. Keep in mind that positioning yourself on altcoins before the breakout of the weekly consolidation/compression on Bitcoin and Ethereum is aggressive, especially considering that the majority of altcoins have underperformed compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum so far.
Learn More About CryptoPicsou
CryptoPicsou is an analyst and trader in the cryptocurrency market since 2016. Known for his transparency and passion for the crypto market, he is also the founder of the most followed French-speaking crypto media: CoinAcademy.
