The US inflation rate stands at 2.7% on a yearly basis in November, significantly below market expectations and lower than the previous month.
A Macro Surprise Boosts Expectations of Federal Reserve Flexibility
This unexpected macro data reinforces expectations of a more accommodating Federal Reserve in the medium term, despite a short-term status quo. However, the picture remains incomplete due to the lack of monthly data resulting from the government shutdown.
Bitcoin responds positively by crossing back above $88,000, driven by declining long-term interest rates and a renewed appetite for short-term risk.
American inflation caused a surprise in November. The Consumer Price Index increased by only 2.7% year on year, well below market expectations of over 3%. This publication was immediately welcomed by risk assets, with Bitcoin crossing back above $88,000 in the aftermath.
According to data released on Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI is significantly lower compared to the previous month, where annual inflation was still at 3%. Even more striking, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, fell to 2.6%, against the expected 3% by economists. A dual signal that reinforces the idea that the inflationary dynamics continue to normalize in the United States.
A Key Macro Signal for the Fed and the Markets
This figure comes at a particularly sensitive macroeconomic juncture. After two rate cuts in 2025, the Federal Reserve is currently in a wait-and-see phase, seeking to assess whether inflation is sustainably converging towards its target without causing excessive labor market deterioration.
Prior to the release, markets were already expecting a high probability of status quo at the January meeting. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the Fed keeping its rates unchanged reached 73%. However, the downside surprise on the CPI could reopen the debate on further rate cuts later in 2026, provided that upcoming data confirms this trajectory.
It is worth noting that monthly data has not been published. BLS statisticians are still grappling with the consequences of the October government shutdown, limiting the detailed reading of short-term dynamics. Despite this absence, the annual trend significantly influences market expectations.
Bitcoin and Risk Assets Benefit
The market reaction was immediate. Bitcoin added about 0.5% to its initial gains, again surpassing the $88,000 threshold. This movement aligns with the macro view: lower inflation reduces pressure on real rates and supports appetite for alternative assets.
Equity markets also picked up pace. The Nasdaq 100 futures rose by over 1.1%, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped by two basis points, to 4.12%. A decline in long-term rates mechanically enhances the appeal of low-yield assets like bitcoin.
A Favorable Yet Fragile Context
If this release reinforces the scenario of a smooth landing for the US economy, caution is still advised. The lack of monthly data complicates interpretation, and the Fed has already shown that it will not settle for a single positive figure to permanently change its course.
For the crypto market, this lower-than-expected CPI serves as a short-term relief. It supports the recovery initiated after recent corrections but does not yet constitute a sufficient catalyst to reignite a lasting bullish trend. The next inflation and employment statistics will be crucial in confirming whether this surprise marks a brief respite or the beginning of a new macro regime more favorable to digital assets.
