MSCI is considering excluding Strategy from its flagship indices by January 15, which could lead to up to $8.8 billion in passive outflows and undermine its model focused entirely on accumulating bitcoin.
MSCI wants to exclude companies with more than half of their assets in crypto
The indexer is considering excluding all companies whose digital assets exceed 50% of their total balance sheet. Strategy is obviously the prime target: with 650,000 BTC in reserves, its model has become synonymous with a Bitcoin Treasury, a proxy linked to the price of BTC rather than a traditional company.
An exit from MSCI USA and MSCI World could trigger up to $8.8 billion in passive outflows if other index providers follow suit, according to JPMorgan. This could be a potential shock for a company heavily reliant on demand from index ETFs and benchmarked funds.
Saylor downplays the risk: ‘It will make no difference’
Speaking in Dubai, Saylor confirms he is ‘engaged in the process’ with MSCI, while casting doubt on the scale of the figures put forward. His stance: even if excluded from the indices, Strategy would continue to attract capital, with its value proposition remaining unchanged.
The CEO also sets expectations: MSTR is designed to amplify bitcoin. If BTC drops by 30% to 40%, the share price will mechanically follow with leverage. Strategy currently has a leverage of 1.11 and, according to Saylor, could survive a 95% crash in the price of bitcoin.
Extreme volatility accentuated by the fall of bitcoin
The decline in BTC in November, its largest monthly drop since 2021, has hit Strategy hard. The company has revised its annual target, shifting from an expected profit of $24 billion to a range of up to $5.5 billion in losses. This is one of the most drastic revisions in recent history for a publicly traded company.
The stock, down 37% since the beginning of the year, significantly underperforms bitcoin, which has been almost stable over the same period. This decoupling fuels criticisms that the Strategy model is too risky and too reliant on equity and debt financing to continue its BTC accumulation.
Systemic pressure on Bitcoin Treasuries companies
The meteoric rise of Strategy has inspired a new generation of listed companies adopting the same strategy. But the current correction could force some to sell part of their BTC holdings, increasing market pressure.
If MSCI confirms its exclusion, this could become a crucial test for the long-term viability of the model: can you remain a bitcoin investment vehicle while depending on passive flows from traditional indices?
Mid-January verdict: a turning point for Strategy… and for global indices
January 15 will be a key date. An exclusion from MSCI would mark the first major confrontation between a systemic indexer and a company that has adopted a Bitcoin-first strategy. For Strategy, it would be a symbolic and potentially financial blow. For the market, a signal on how traditional finance intends to integrate, or exclude, hybrid Web3 players.
Saylor seeks to reassure. Investors, however, hold their breath.
