The crucial support at $105,000 has been breached, with Bitcoin falling to $103,700, now exposing the critical zone of $100,000 to $101,000, and potentially risking a drop towards $94,000.
Stock markets also show signs of overheating: the ‘Mag 7’ indicates an unprecedented imbalance between call and put options, a signal often heralding a correction.
The surge in Oracle’s CDS, linked to its spending on artificial intelligence, reinforces fears of an AI bubble and a global slowdown weighing on crypto.
Investors fear a new dive towards $100,000
According to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, the breakdown of support now puts the $100,000 to $101,000 zone in the spotlight. A clear break at this level could lead to a deeper test towards $94,000, or even a complete return to $85,000, where strong on-chain support lies.
Thielen, however, remains measured:
Such a drop would be extreme, but the risks are contained as long as Bitcoin holds above its current downtrend line.
In essence, the game is not over yet, but the bulls are walking a tightrope.
The domino effect of the stock markets
This correction does not happen in isolation. The overheating sentiment in the stock markets, especially around tech giants, is starting to cause concern. The famous ‘Magnificent 7’ group, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla, displays a historic inverse put-call skew, a volatility indicator rarely seen.
As analyst Neil Sethi explains, ‘the implied volatility of calls has exceeded that of puts for the first time since last December’. In other words, investors are heavily betting on a continued rise, a classic sign of euphoria peak. Historically, such imbalances often precede a phase of consolidation… or even a sharp correction.
Concern grows around spending on artificial intelligence
Another warning signal: the cost of Oracle’s Credit Default Swaps (CDS) is skyrocketing. These contracts, which measure a company’s default risk, are rising to unprecedented levels since periods of macroeconomic tension. The group’s revelations about its massive investments in AI in the third quarter are to blame.
For the past two years, the optimism surrounding artificial intelligence has fueled the rise of stock markets and, to a smaller extent, crypto. But overconfidence seems to be reaching a peak, leading some investors to hedge against a potential downturn.
A market teetering between optimism and vertigo
Between a cautious Fed on rate cuts, a strengthening dollar, and worrying AI bubble, the climate remains tense. If Bitcoin fails to stabilize quickly above $105,000, the symbolic $100,000 threshold could be tested sooner than expected. Polymarket traders overwhelmingly consider this target, with a 70% chance that BTC will reach $100,000 in November reaching 73%.
Signals abound: euphoria in stocks, tension in corporate debt, and nervousness in crypto. The market may not have said its final word yet, but it has certainly lost its lightness.
