No Ethereum Spot ETFs Before the End of 2025:
- TD Cowen predicts that an Ethereum Spot ETF will not be approved in the United States before the end of 2025 or early 2026.
- This prediction is based on political considerations and the need for approval from progressive Democrats.
- Several Ethereum Spot ETF applications, including those from BlackRock and Fidelity, are pending, with decisions delayed by the SEC.
The TD Cowen Perspective on Ethereum Spot ETFs
Investment bank TD Cowen recently shared its approval timeline for Ethereum Spot ETFs, suggesting a wait until the end of 2025 or early 2026.
This analysis is influenced by the current political climate, including the “upset” reactions from progressive Democrats during the recent approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF. The bank highlights that Gary Gensler, the SEC chairman, seeks to maintain the support of progressives, especially in this election year, which makes the approval of an Ethereum Spot ETF unlikely in the short term.
“We do not expect the SEC to approve an Ethereum spot ETF in 2024 […] We believe there is no advantage for SEC Chairman Gary Gensler to approve an Ethereum Spot ETF, given how upset progressive Democrats were with the agency’s approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF earlier this month.
said TD Cowen
Gensler, potentially envisioning a reorientation as Treasury Secretary, would prefer to avoid unnecessary conflicts while wishing to “acquire more experience” with the recent approved Bitcoin Spot ETF performances.
A Process That Could Extend Over “One or Two Years”
To date, several major asset managers, including BlackRock and Fidelity, have submitted requests for an Ethereum Spot ETF. However, the SEC has recently delayed its decision on Grayscale Investments’ proposal, following the delay of other applications earlier in the month.
According to TD Cowen, the SEC can take its time before delivering its verdict regarding the approval or rejection of ETFs, a process that could extend over another one or two years. Despite the absence of broader legislation on the crypto market structure in 2025, the expected approval by the end of 2025 or early 2026 remains possible, even considering Gensler’s term ending in June 2026.
Today, opinions are quite divided within the ecosystem, with some experts being fairly optimistic about an imminent approval, while others are more reserved.
