Donald Trump Survives Assassination Attempt, Boosting His Chances of Election
Former President Donald Trump was shot during a rally in Pennsylvania, increasing his odds of re-election to 70% on Polymarket, a prediction market in crypto.
The failed assassination attempt has caused a dramatic surge in his chances of re-election, according to Polymarket traders. A spokesperson for the Secret Service confirmed that Trump was safe after the shooting, while the presumed shooter was killed and at least one bystander lost their life.
Photos and videos of a bloodied yet defiant Trump circulated on social media, shifting the national discourse from the vulnerabilities of his opponent, President Joe Biden. ‘Yes’ shares on Polymarket’s contract regarding Trump’s victory in November jumped by ten cents, reaching 70 cents, indicating a 70% probability of his victory according to this market.
Impact on Meme Tokens
Meme tokens related to Trump, such as MAGA and TREMP, have also seen a significant increase. For instance, the MAGA token rose by 34% in 24 hours, while the satirical memecoin TREMP surged by nearly 70%. Conversely, the BODEN token linked to Biden plummeted by approximately 15%. These tokens, although memetic, have become a sort of informal betting market on the presidential election, even though they do not pay holders in the event of the associated candidate’s victory.
Bitcoin and Crypto Market Reaction
Bitcoin and the global crypto market experienced a surge following the assassination attempt, as the chances of Donald Trump’s re-election skyrocketed. Bitcoin even briefly surpassed $61,000, a crucial milestone for the leading cryptocurrency.
Trump, a staunch supporter of cryptocurrencies, is scheduled to speak at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference this month, further cementing his support for the industry.
Prediction Market Dynamics
Polymarket, founded by Shayne Coplan four years ago, has witnessed exceptional trading volumes in 2024, largely due to the enthusiasm for political betting ahead of the US presidential election. The contract on the winner of the US presidential election has surpassed $250 million in bets, setting a record for the company and all crypto prediction markets.
