Donald Trump stirs up insider trading suspicions swirling around prediction markets. The American president claimed that the ‘Venezuela leaker’ had been identified and incarcerated, a statement that comes as several Polymarket accounts linked to ultra-early bets on Nicolás Maduro’s fall have suddenly gone silent.
“The leaker on Venezuela has been found and is currently in prison,” declared Trump from the Oval Office. While the president made no direct reference to prediction markets, the timing of his remarks immediately reignited speculation within the crypto community.
Too Well-Placed Bets to Be Coincidental
Since the beginning of the month, Polymarket has faced criticism after several accounts raked in gains of hundreds of thousands of dollars by betting on Nicolás Maduro’s ouster, just hours before his official arrest by American forces. For many observers, the precision and concentration of these bets exceed mere chance.
On-chain analysts from Lookonchain noted that two of the three wallets that profited from these bets have been inactive for eleven days. Among them, the account identified as 0xa72DB1, which reportedly turned an initial stake of around $5,800 into over $75,000 by betting on Maduro’s downfall before January 31, 2026.
Another account, 0x31a56e, had placed multiple bets on various scenarios related to Venezuela, winning over $400,000 before vanishing from the platform around January 8. The Polymarket page is now inaccessible, fueling suspicions of voluntary deactivation or platform action.
A Last Active Account
A third wallet, named SBet365, remains active. According to Lookonchain, it placed another bet two days ago, this time on a possible overthrow of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei before month-end. The same account allegedly won around $140,000 from Venezuela-related bets.
This continued activity strengthens the idea of a small group of highly informed accounts, possibly connected to sensitive leaks. Trump himself hinted that the matter might not stop there, alluding to the possibility of ‘other leakers’.
Prediction Markets Under Political Pressure
The incident comes as prediction markets are already under scrutiny in Washington. Several US lawmakers are pushing for legislation to combat insider trading on political bets, arguing that these platforms can become tools for monetizing confidential information.
In the industry’s defense, stakeholders are fighting back. Sean Patrick Maloney, president of the Coalition for Prediction Markets, claims that member platforms already strictly prohibit insider trading through enhanced verification procedures. However, he emphasizes the need to distinguish regulated platforms from unregistered offshore entities.
One central question remains: if a leaker is truly behind these bets, the case could mark a turning point for Polymarket and, more broadly, for all crypto prediction markets. Between the transparency promised by blockchain and the risks of informational abuse, the boundary appears more fragile than ever.
