Donald Trump is gaining ground against Kamala Harris in the predictions of Polymarket, a predictive market platform that claims to be more accurate than traditional polls.
This gap has widened by 2.5% following Elon Musk’s vocal support of Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania. Despite this national lead, Trump lags behind in the key state of Nevada, often seen as a reliable barometer for the overall election result.
Elon Musk: A Surprising Supporter and Advocate for Predictive Markets
In Butler, the site of the first assassination attempt against Trump in July, Musk expressed his support for the former president while adopting a provocative tone. ‘I’m not just MAGA, I’m Dark MAGA,’ said Musk, referring to the pro-Trump movement. He also criticized the Democratic camp, accusing them of wanting to restrict freedom of speech, the right to bear arms, and the right to vote. In parallel, Elon Musk highlighted predictive markets such as Polymarket, calling them more accurate than traditional polls for anticipating election results.
Trump: A National Lead, but Difficulties in Swing States
While Trump is ahead of Harris in national predictions on Polymarket, his situation is more complicated in swing states. A Polymarket contract assessing the chances of Trump winning each swing state gives him only a 19% chance of succeeding, an identical figure for Harris. However, the focus is primarily on Nevada, a state that has correctly predicted the outcome of eight out of the past nine elections. According to data from USAFacts, an independent and non-profit civic organization, the current dynamics favor Democrats in this state, making it difficult for Trump.
The Situation in Nevada: Uncertain Ground for Trump
The indicators are unfavorable to Trump in Nevada. According to data compiled by Nate Silver in the Silver Bulletin, Democrats have strengthened their hold on this state over the past month. Nevada has been fertile ground for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has achieved some of his best results there. However, his withdrawal from the race has left his supporters divided, with some choosing to rally behind Trump while others consider abstaining from voting, disappointed by the options of the major parties.
Ohio: A Key State for Republicans
In contrast to Nevada, Ohio appears to be presenting better prospects for Republicans. The state, historically another reliable barometer for the outcome of presidential elections, currently gives Trump a 90% probability of victory according to Polymarket. This gap shows how fiercely contested the 2024 race for the White House could be, with strong polarization of voting intentions across states.
Polymarket contracts suggest that the election could be one of the most undecided in recent history, with key states playing a determining role. While Ohio seems to be heading towards a Republican victory, the situation in Nevada remains uncertain, and movements in predictive markets reflect the complexity of the situation. The support of influential figures like Elon Musk adds a new layer of uncertainty and underscores the importance of predictive markets in analyzing this extraordinary electoral race.
