Donald Trump’s Chances of Winning the 2024 Election Rise to 67% on Polymarket After First Presidential Debate
The chances of Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, winning the 2024 US elections have significantly increased on Polymarket after the first presidential debate.
Bettors on the platform are increasingly showing a sentiment that President Biden will not be the Democratic candidate or that he may withdraw from the race.
Performance of Biden and Market Sentiment
Skeptical bettors regarding President Biden’s performance in the first debate of the 2024 election have boosted former President Trump’s chances of victory to 67%.
A contract requiring bettors to declare the outcome of the 2024 election currently totals nearly $200 million, with about $23 million on Trump and $22 million on Biden. Polymarket also reported a brief service interruption at the start of the debate due to a surge in traffic.
Rise and Fall of Democratic Candidates
The growing skepticism regarding Biden’s chances of reaching the election is reinforced by market sentiment. According to Polymarket, there are less than 70% chances of Biden becoming the Democratic candidate, while the chances of California Governor Gavin Newsom have reached 17% and those of Michelle Obama have risen to 7%. Another contract asking if Biden would withdraw from the presidential race climbed to 43% during the debate.
Performance of Tokens Linked to Candidates
Meanwhile, traders of memecoins have pushed major tokens representing Trump and Biden into the red. The token MAGA, trading under the ticker TRUMP, has dropped by 12.5%, while the token BODEN has declined by 34%. The token TREMP has also decreased by 10%.
The topic of cryptocurrencies was not mentioned during the debate despite its growing importance in the Republican campaign. A Polymarket contract asking if Trump would mention cryptocurrencies or bitcoin deemed it unlikely, reaching a maximum of 6%.
