With a surge of more than 35% since January, gold has emerged as the standout asset of the year. Now priced at over $3,500 per ounce, the precious metal surpasses both the Nasdaq and Bitcoin, confirming its historical role as a safe haven. Investors, faced with falling bond yields, record public debt, and growing political tensions, are flocking to this age-old anchor.
A Bitcoin-Gold Report Under Pressure
The famous BTC/XAU ratio illustrates this shift: it now takes only 31.2 ounces of gold to acquire one bitcoin, compared to 40 in December. In other words, gold is gaining ground on the flagship cryptocurrency. However, technical analysis reveals a more complex scenario: the ratio has been on a predominantly upward trajectory for BTC since 2017. Past corrections, often exceeding 70%, now give way to a more measured retreat, reinforcing the idea of a potential recovery by the end of the year or in the first half of 2026.
A Signal to Watch for Crypto Investors
If gold confirms its reference status, Bitcoin maintains a long-term structural momentum. Previous cycles have shown that every collapse of the ratio has led to a new historical peak. The current weakness could paradoxically pave the way for a future surge of BTC against the yellow metal.
Trump, the Fed, and the Rush to Gold
The equation becomes even more explosive with the entry of Donald Trump. His direct confrontation with the Federal Reserve, particularly his attempt to dismiss Governor Lisa Cook, fuels fears of a weakened and politicized Fed. According to Goldman Sachs, a loss of independence by the US central bank would mechanically lead to more inflation, a weakened dollar, and plunging long-term rates. The expected result: gold nearing $5,000 per ounce.
An Extreme yet Credible Scenario
Goldman sets a target of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 but believes that a mere 1% shift of private assets from US Treasuries to gold would be enough to propel the price to the symbolic threshold of $5,000. Major asset managers like Pictet confirm their stance as being ‘doubly overweight’ on the metal, convinced that the US political climate could reignite a new bullish trend.
Towards a Redefinition of Portfolios
Central banks are not unrelated to this. Since 2022, they have accelerated their purchases, multiplying their acquisitions of dollars converted into gold by five. Private investors are following suit, driven by the scarcity of credible alternatives. As BlackRock points out, ‘long US bonds no longer offer the expected protection during market turmoil.’ Gold then emerges as the last reliable line of defense, reshaping the global asset allocation landscape.
A Duel Redefining the Hierarchy
In 2025, gold reminded that it remains the ultimate arbiter of markets, even against Bitcoin. But behind this apparent triumph lies a fundamental battle: the cryptocurrency could benefit from this power struggle to prepare for its next bullish cycle. Between a millennia-old metal emancipating itself from political turbulence and a digital asset challenging central banks, the end of the year is shaping up to be crucial for the hierarchy of safe havens.
