The American giant Gemini is preparing to enter the explosive sector of prediction markets. According to Bloomberg, the platform founded by the Winklevoss brothers is gearing up to offer prediction contracts allowing users to bet on economic, political, or sporting events, a fusion of speculation, data, and decentralized finance.
Gemini is venturing into prediction markets
It all started last May when Gemini applied to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to become an authorized platform for derivatives products. This status, essential to operate legally in the United States, paves the way for a new generation of contracts: “event contracts,” or event contracts.
The goal? Allow users to wager on the likelihood of an event: a candidate’s victory, a Fed decision, or even the results of a sports match. These products could be launched in the coming weeks, according to sources close to the matter.
The idea is not new, but the timing is perfect. Gemini, recently listed on the stock exchange, aims to reinvent itself in a rapidly professionalizing crypto market. The exchange even included in its IPO prospectus its ambition to conquer the predictive markets segment, an area still largely dominated by emerging players.
Kalshi, Polymarket… and now Gemini
In October, the two sector leaders reached record volumes: $4.4 billion for Kalshi, regulated by the CFTC, and $3 billion for Polymarket, making a strong comeback in the American market. These figures speak volumes: demand is soaring.
Prediction markets appeal to both traditional traders and crypto investors, drawn to their speculative logic and informational efficiency. In this context, Gemini’s entry changes the game. By combining a regulated infrastructure, a recognized brand, and a global user base, the platform could offer a credible alternative to Polymarket, which has long been hindered by legal uncertainty in the United States.
A wind of change from the regulators
Long hesitant towards these hybrid markets, the CFTC now appears more open. It no longer considers prediction markets simply as betting platforms, but as innovative financial tools aggregating collective expectations.
This regulatory evolution is already attracting big names from finance and entertainment. In August, Robinhood partnered with Kalshi to offer contracts related to the NFL and college championship. Even the NHL has signed multi-year agreements with Kalshi and Polymarket, a historic first for an American sports league.
A declining stock, but a clear vision
On Tuesday, Gemini’s stock fell over 8%, closing at €15.35 (compared to an initial price of around €35). A sharp, but logical correction for a company still in a phase of strategic repositioning.
Gemini’s first earnings report, expected on November 10, will be crucial to gauge investor appetite. But one thing is clear: the Winklevoss brothers’ bet looks ambitious. If regulations continue to loosen, Gemini could well become the bridge between traditional finance and predictive finance, a space where information, speculation, and blockchain merge seamlessly.
