A French trader nicknamed Theo has pocketed $50 million by betting on Trump’s victory via Polymarket, after investing $30 million on this prediction.
Theo hired a private firm and used the ‘neighbor effect’ as a polling method, asking survey respondents to predict their neighbors’ votes rather than their own choices, thereby revealing hidden trends often overlooked by traditional polls.
Theo criticizes traditional polls for their bias in favor of Democratic candidates, highlighting that Trump has often outperformed predictions in key states thanks to discreet but solid support.
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In 2024, the U.S. presidential election brought its fair share of surprises, including Donald Trump’s victory against traditional polls that had him losing. At the heart of this bold prediction was a mysterious French trader generally known as a ‘Trump whale.’ This trader, nicknamed Theo, bet on Trump’s re-election and won nearly $50 million through a strategic bet on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket.
Theo, whose identity remains secret, is an experienced finance and banking professional. He invested over $30 million to support his belief that Trump would not only win the presidency but also gain ground in crucial swing states. He clarified that his motivations were purely financial, with no political commitment, in exchanges with the Wall Street Journal.
The Neighbor Effect: A Different Methodology
Unlike traditional polling methods, Theo relied on what he calls the ‘neighbor effect.’ Instead of asking respondents who they were going to vote for, he asked them to predict their neighbors’ choices. This technique circumvents individuals’ reluctance to disclose their personal political preferences while obtaining a genuine insight into local trends.
This method proved effective in anticipating hidden votes, often overlooked by traditional polls, including the phenomenon of pro-Trump ‘shy voters.’ According to Theo, many Trump supporters hesitate to openly express their support or participate in surveys due to fear of stigmatization.
He then decided to bet tens of millions of dollars on Trump’s victory through four different accounts on Polymarket, winning the jackpot.
A Biased Polling System?
Theo strongly criticizes the bias of traditional polls, which he believes often favor Democratic candidates. This bias, according to him, creates an illusion of electoral superiority that skews public perception. His analysis shows that in previous elections, Trump consistently exceeded poll expectations, especially in key states.
Private surveys commissioned by Theo revealed a stronger base of Trump support than captured by conventional polling institutes. These results bolstered his confidence in the ‘neighbor effect’ as a reliable forecasting tool, also allowing him to pocket approximately $50 million in the process.
