The capture of Nicolás Maduro by the United States marks a historic precedent and brutally clarifies the American power dynamics.
What happened: an unprecedented military operation
Over the weekend, Donald Trump announced a large-scale military operation against Venezuela, involving around 150 aircraft and targeted strikes on Caracas. Nicolás Maduro and his wife were captured in a nighttime raid by US special forces, with direct intelligence support.
Washington publicly acknowledged the operation. Trump stated that the US would “lead the country” until an acceptable transition is established, not ruling out a military presence on the ground. He also emphasized that American oil interests would be central post-Maduro, mentioning access to energy infrastructure and financial compensation for intervention costs.
Legally, Maduro is facing charges in New York for narco-terrorism and cocaine trafficking. The White House justified the operation on grounds of national security, despite the lack of Congressional authorization, already sparking tensions in Washington.
The first impact: a shockwave on risk assets
Immediately after markets reopened, a rapid but counterintuitive reaction occurred. Unlike traditional geopolitical crisis scenarios, the event did not cause a massive flight to safe assets. On the contrary, markets shifted to a risk-on mode.
Asian stocks hit new highs, led by technology stocks and artificial intelligence momentum. Crypto markets reacted strongly, with Bitcoin reaching $93,000, triggering a wave of short position liquidations. Over $260 million of shorts were wiped out in 24 hours, signaling a swift trader repositioning.
This movement is attributed to a key factor: the sudden elimination of a political risk considered dormant for years. For markets, Maduro’s arrest is seen not as an uncontrollable escalation but as a brutal clarification of American power dynamics.
Oil: paradoxically under pressure
Despite Venezuela holding about 17% of proven global oil reserves, prices declined. Brent dropped below $60 per barrel, while WTI settled around $57.
This drop reflects a medium-term anticipation. Short-term operational risk exists, with about 800,000 barrels per day potentially disrupted. Investors are already looking beyond the initial shock to a regime change in Caracas, easing sanctions, and a major return of Western majors that could lead to a structural increase in supply.
Markets are factoring in a scenario where Venezuelan oil becomes commercially viable on a large scale, exerting downward pressure on global prices in an uncertain demand context.
The immediate winners: energy and defense
Equity markets swiftly identified beneficiaries. American energy companies surged, with Chevron, already present in Venezuela under a special license, rising nearly 9%. Halliburton and ConocoPhillips gained around 10%, while ExxonMobil progressed modestly.
In Europe, defense stocks also benefited from the signal sent by Washington. Rheinmetall and Saab saw significant increases. The implicit message is clear: the US is willing to use force unilaterally, strengthening the geopolitical premium on the defense sector.
Gold and safe havens: a measured reaction
Gold made gains, surpassing $4,400 per ounce, without panic. The dollar remained relatively stable. This lack of extreme stress indicates that markets view the event as under control, despite its historical nature.
A precedent with far-reaching consequences
Beyond short-term reactions, Maduro’s arrest sets a major precedent. It questions implicit rules of state sovereignty and reinforces the idea that sanctions may now be followed by direct military actions.
For emerging markets, the message is harsh. Political risk is no longer just an abstract macro factor but a binary one that can cause rapid asset collapse or revaluation based on geopolitical alignment.
For global markets, the weekend marks a turning point. The world is entering a phase where geopolitics not only influences markets but reshapes them. Investors must now factor in an additional parameter: American willingness to act quickly and decisively.
