Bitcoin has recently hit a historical peak at $123,000. A staggering achievement followed by an immediate shock: a 5% drop within hours, leading to a return to $116,250. For traders, the psychological threshold of $120,000 now becomes a critical rejection zone.
But the most concerning aspect lies elsewhere: all signals point towards a possible drop below $115,000… and maybe even down to $108,000 according to some analysts.
Whales Moving (in the Wrong Direction)
CryptoQuant data is conclusive: whales, those investors holding thousands of BTC, have intensified their movements on Binance. The platform’s “Whale Activity Score” has skyrocketed since the peak at $123,000.
What does this mean? Over 1,800 BTC were deposited on Binance on Monday. In terms of value, over 35% of transfers exceeded one million dollars. This is significant. And it’s never without consequence.
This generally signifies one thing: profit-taking or preparation for a major selling move.
On the Bitwise side, André Dragosch observes another red flag: long-term holders are cashing in their gains, evident in profit metrics.
When over 98% of the circulating supply is “in the money,” history has taught us one thing: corrections come. And often forcefully.
The CME Gap: A Gap the Market Could Fill
Another technical element causing a stir among traders: the famous “futures gap” on CME between $114,380 and $115,630.
These gaps left by futures contracts are typically filled in the majority of cases. In other words, a descent towards $114,000 seems almost mechanical.
Several analysts remain confident, predicting that the gap will be filled around the CPI publication, before resuming an upward trajectory. But others, like Michael van de Poppe, warn: if the 114K level is breached, a retreat to $108,000 is possible.
Bull Run or Severe Correction?
The market remains in a long-term bullish trend. However, in the short term, signals of profit-taking, selling pressure from whales, and the structure of gaps suggest caution.
A key message for investors: volatility. And perhaps a great opportunity… for those who can wait.
