The crypto market has endured a violent shock. In less than two months, Bitcoin has plummeted from a historical high of $126,250 to a low of $89,420. A steep drop that has revived bad memories and stirred up everything the market detests: fear, uncertainty, and doubt. However, a slight rebound hours later has reignited hopes for some investors. Bitcoin has regained some lost ground and is trading around $91,000, with ETH back to $3,050. Nothing euphoric, but enough to break the sense of total capitulation.
Bitcoin teeters, but the market refuses total panic
The break below $93,700 prompted institutional buyers to halt their purchases, while Spot ETFs experienced two almost empty weeks.
The Fear and Greed index at 11 signals extreme fear, but similar capitulation zones have historically served as a turning point when ETF flows and the macro context stabilize.
A flare-up after a technical break that scared everyone
The breach of the $93,700 support triggered a downward spiral. Falling below its 200-day moving average, Bitcoin signaled a dreaded sign for traders: the infamous death cross between the 50 and 200-day averages. Not a verdict, but a serious warning when liquidity dries up and ETF flows come to a halt.
In the US, Spot ETFs that attracted more than $25 billion earlier this year saw two nearly blank weeks. Institutional investors scaled back, deterred by fears of inflation related to the Trump administration’s new tariff policy, and the idea that the Fed might postpone the next rate cut. Companies that had been accumulating heavily in the first half of the year did the same: a total pause.
An atmosphere of maximum fear, but conflicting signals emerge
The Fear and Greed index has dropped to 11, a level associated with the worst times of 2022. Network discussions have focused almost exclusively on BTC. During each cycle, this phenomenon arises when traders flee altcoins and retreat to the asset considered the most solid. This behavior often aligns with local capitulation zones.
Analysts remain cautious. Until Bitcoin reclaims $93,000, an obvious liquidity zone exists between $86,000 and $88,000. However, recent history shows that sentiment shocks of this intensity also trigger short-term rebounds if ETF flows cease to exit and macro data becomes less aggressive.
A market that rebalances even in chaos
In a still fragile market but already in a slight rebound, the battle in the coming days will revolve around ETF flows, US interest rates, and Bitcoin’s ability to turn extreme fear into a new accumulation zone.
