Welcome to the latest edition of our weekly newsletter. Each week, we offer in-depth analysis and insights into the latest cryptocurrency market news to help you navigate and make informed decisions in this exciting world.
Bitcoin: End of the Correction?
Despite a lengthy consolidation and a sharp breakdown, Bitcoin doesn’t seem to be done yet and has rebounded strongly since the German government finished selling all the BTC it held. Now, Bitcoin is trying to re-enter its previous consolidation range between $61,000 π’ and $71,000 π΄.
This rebound is quite concerning for sellers, as it makes the breakdown of our long consolidation disappointing and brings us back to pre-breakdown prices. Furthermore, institutional investors have taken this opportunity to add fresh funds (inflows) to Bitcoin Spot ETFs.
Have we witnessed another deviation from the range (like in late April)?
Possible. In any case, I cannot maintain a bearish bias in the short, medium, and long term unless we close below $60,000-61,000 on a weekly basis (lower bound π’).
Now, the most important thing for buyers is to defend the lower bound π’ (around $60,000-61,000) so that we can use it as support and move back up. As long as we don’t close below it, I think it’s reasonable to aim for the upper bound π΄, and if I may be frank, I think this target π΄ is a bit too reasonable.
Why? Mainly because the upper bound π΄ has been retested too many times (and seems weakened), but also because everyone who took short positions after the breakdown of our consolidation (in early July) will sooner or later have to return to the market by buying spot or closing their shorts.
In conclusion, as long as we don’t close below $60,000-$61,000 (lower bound π’) on a weekly basis, my bias is bullish, and my minimum target is a new All-Time High (>$74,000). It’s not impossible that we may dip below this lower bound π’, but as long as we don’t close below it on a weekly basis, my bias remains bullish.
This is what I think when looking at the chart, but it’s important to keep in mind that Mt. Gox is about to repay billions of dollars worth of BTC to its customers (in fact, test transfers were made this Tuesday). The sales resulting from these repayments are expected to be much larger than those made by the German government.
Taking positions in this context is quite complicated. On one hand, we have significant graphical evidence of buyer strength, but on the other hand, we have the looming uncertainty of Mt. Gox repayments.
Stay tuned.
Ethereum: Still No Outperformance?
Ethereum has also rebounded in line with Bitcoin.
However, Ethereum still doesn’t seem to benefit from the upcoming tradability of Spot ETFs or the massive sales by the German government (and potentially by Mt. Gox customers) to outperform Bitcoin.
ETF Update: The ETF experts now estimate that Spot ETFs will be tradable from July 23. Let’s hope it’s the right date, as we’ve been waiting for the ETFs.
The fact that Bitcoin has possibly reentered its consolidation range between $61,000 and $71,000 and that Spot ETFs may be tradable next week makes me somewhat more optimistic. But once again, Bitcoin must prove its strength with a strong weekly close, and Spot ETFs must be listed. For now, it’s still hypothetical.
Graphically, Ethereum has found support again at the key level of $2,800 and appears to be forming a clear consolidation pattern (which I initially thought was a compression) between $2,800 π’ and $3,900 π΄ (similar to Bitcoin between $61,000 and $71,000).
It’s hard to be overly optimistic until the upper bound π΄ is broken, just as it’s hard to be overly pessimistic until the lower bound π’ is broken.
Patience is required given the current market noise.
Altcoins: Key Levels Reached
Following Bitcoin’s recent drop, altcoins sought the long-term reload zone π΅ (61 to 78% retracement from the low to high of the cycle) and then rebounded in sync with Bitcoin and Ethereum.
As I mentioned in X and in the last edition of this newsletter, I had placed limit orders (buy orders at prices 20 to 60% lower than two weeks ago) on $BNB, $SOL, $TON, $FET, $TAO, $ONDO, and some of these orders were filled, allowing me to have strategic entries for the rest of the cycle.
Is it possible that we will retest the π΅ zone? Yes, and at that time, the rest of my orders could be completely filled.
For now, I’m sitting on my hands, but I’m ready to increase my positions or adjust my buy orders on altcoins if Bitcoin shows more strength (a strong weekly close >$65,000 or resilience in the event of large-scale sell-offs by Mt. Gox customers).
Learn More About CryptoPicsou
CryptoPicsou has been an analyst and trader in the cryptocurrency market since 2016. Known for his transparency and passion for the crypto market, he is also the founder of the most popular French-speaking crypto media: CoinAcademy.
