Welcome to this new edition of our weekly newsletter. Each week, we offer you in-depth analysis and insights on the latest news in the crypto markets to help you navigate and make informed decisions in this exciting universe.
Bitcoin: the long-awaited correction?
This week, Bitcoin fell and broke our weekly consolidation of over 100 days (located between $61,000 🟢 and $71,000 🔴) to the downside.
As mentioned in previous newsletters, we could expect a return of volatility and for the range to be mature enough to break, especially due to the number of retests of the lower bound 🟢 and the upper bound 🔴. And now it seems that the potential sale of Bitcoin associated with the German government or the repayment of Mt. Gox may have contributed to this break.
From a chart perspective, Bitcoin remains in a long-term bullish trend but appears to be in a phase of short and medium-term correction.
Considering the length of the consolidation that has been broken to the downside, it is difficult to believe that the correction is already over. After such a long consolidation, the market is often poised to enter a powerful trending phase (in this case, bearish).
My bias is therefore bearish, but two things could make me more optimistic and lead me to increase my exposure:
- A strong reaction at key long-term levels ($51,500 or $47,000 or $44,000) following a further downward acceleration (capitulation?)
- A recovery of the $61,000 (lower bound 🟢) as support, and thus a reintegration of the weekly range we were in
Additional note: If you read the previous newsletter, you may have noticed that I mentioned the 🔵 zone as a key level to recover in order to become optimistic again. This zone 🔵 marked the top of the last bounce before breaking the range to the downside.
Ethereum: under the spell of Bitcoin
Ethereum also declined along with Bitcoin and eventually retested a very important weekly horizontal level: $2,800.
For now, Ethereum does not seem to benefit from the decline in Bitcoin to outperform, despite tradable Spot ETFs coming soon and potential massive sales (Mt. Gox and the German government) that do not directly affect Ethereum.
Update: Trading of Ethereum Spot ETFs is expected to be launched in the next 15 days (week of July 8 or week of July 15).
It is difficult to be extremely optimistic for Ethereum given that Bitcoin has just broken its consolidation of over 100 days to the downside.
For now, I don’t have a strong bias (it’s difficult to be very bearish on such a key support), but two things could make me more optimistic:
- A breakout above the $3,950 resistance
- A brief drop below $2,750 (below the last weekly lows) followed by a strong rebound that would bring us back above $2,900
Altcoins: key levels reached
Despite some panic in Bitcoin and Ethereum, altcoins are reaching interesting long-term levels to defend and demonstrating a certain resilience.
As you can see below, altcoins do not seem to be losing against Bitcoin (in BTC pairs). Similarly, the dominance of altcoins (% of the crypto market capitalization) does not seem to be decreasing.
As mentioned on X in recent days, I have started buying certain altcoins by placing buy orders at prices 20 to 60% lower than last week’s prices on $BNB $SOL $TON $FET $TAO $ONDO. The goal is not to be aggressive, but rather to try to gradually buy into market fear at strategic levels during a phase of resilience.
Note from CryptoPicsou
Bitcoin, the metronome of our dear market, has broken a long consolidation to the downside, and this is not something to underestimate. As long as Bitcoin does not recover $61,000, my bias is bearish.
In the event of further downward acceleration and panic below $51,000, I will take the opportunity to buy more BTC and position myself for the rest of the cycle. If that doesn’t happen, I’m ready to buy a sign of strength (closing above $61,000) to aim for an upward continuation and new ATHs.
At the same time, it seems important to take a closer look at altcoins as they demonstrate resilience compared to Bitcoin and reach long-term levels to defend if you believe in the continuation of the cycle (my case).
Learn more about CryptoPicsou
CryptoPicsou is an analyst and trader in the cryptocurrency market since 2016. Known for his transparency and passion for the crypto market, he is also the founder of the most followed French-speaking crypto media: CoinAcademy.
