2025: A Year of Uncertainty and Opportunities
The year 2025 is shaping up to be a decisive period for financial markets, influenced by major macroeconomic factors such as inflation, central bank policies, and geopolitical tensions.
The potential reelection of Donald Trump could disrupt global trade, impacting currencies, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin could reach new heights due to institutional adoption and a more favorable administration, but a correction is possible by the end of 2025.
2025: A Global Context Marked by Uncertainty and Opportunities
XTB unveils its annual report on market outlook for 2025, offering valuable insights for investors navigating an uncertain and volatile economic environment. The report analyzes challenges and opportunities that will shape the markets by exploring key themes such as inflation, interest rate trends, currency dynamics, commodities, and the rise of cryptocurrencies.
Inflation under Close Observation
After a period of calm, inflation is back in focus. XTB highlights several factors that could contribute to a resurgence of inflation, including Trump’s protectionist policies, trade tensions with China, and mass deportations of immigrants in the US. These factors may force the Federal Reserve to adopt a more restrictive posture, questioning hopes for a gradual decline in interest rates.
EUR/USD: A Return to Parity?
The foreign exchange market could experience significant movements in 2025. XTB suggests that US monetary policy and the structural weakness of the European economy could lead to another drop in the EUR/USD pair, reminiscent of the situation in 2022. The European Central Bank struggles to stimulate sustainable growth, while the war in Ukraine and protectionist threats from Washington further complicate the Eurozone’s economic recovery. The dollar, supported by high interest rates and stronger economic growth, could regain the upper hand.
China Facing Major Challenges
Despite liquidity injections and massive stimulus measures, the Chinese economy struggles to regain its dynamism. XTB highlights the persisting real estate crisis, weak domestic consumption, and uncertainty regarding trade relations with the US, particularly if new tariffs are imposed under the Trump administration. In this context, the Chinese stock market could remain under pressure, with GDP growth reaching a plateau at 4.5% in 2025.
Gold and Oil: Opposing Trends?
Gold had an exceptional year in 2024 and could continue its upward trajectory in 2025. XTB identifies several catalysts for this trend, including expectations of declining interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and sustained central bank demand. A progression towards $3,000 per ounce in the next two years is possible if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable. On the other hand, oil could experience a sharp decline. XTB predicts supply surplus starting in the second quarter of 2025, exacerbated by increased production in the US and weaker demand in China and Europe. As a result, the barrel could fall to $50, putting significant pressure on numerous producers, including OPEC+.
A Prolonged Bull Market for US Stocks?
Wall Street shone in 2024, largely due to the dominance of tech giants and the emergence of artificial intelligence. XTB highlights that the CAPE ratio, a key market valuation indicator, reached historically high levels, signaling a potential correction risk. However, technological advancements and expected interest rate cuts could extend the upward trend, although volatility remains a critical factor to monitor.
Bitcoin: A New High in 2025?
Cryptocurrencies experienced unprecedented enthusiasm in 2024, driven by institutional adoption and the growth of Bitcoin ETFs. XTB states that investment funds now hold over 1.1 million BTC, reducing selling pressure on the market. With the prospect of a crypto-friendly Trump administration and a continuing bullish market, Bitcoin could reach new heights. However, historical cycles suggest a possible correction towards the end of the year.
2025: Seizing Opportunities
While 2025 presents challenges, it also offers numerous investment opportunities. XTB recommends a flexible approach that can adapt to rapidly changing market conditions. With currency volatility, uncertainty in commodities, and the transformation of the financial landscape through technology and cryptocurrencies, the coming year may require new investment strategies and diversification.
