Bitcoin briefly surged to over $92,000 on Tuesday, reaching a peak around $92,500 in the minutes following the release of the US December inflation data. This rapid movement highlights a market extremely sensitive to any macroeconomic signals.
A Surprise-Free yet Closely Watched Inflation
According to the figures published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in December, exactly as in November and in line with consensus expectations. Monthly, inflation stood at 0.3%, also in line with forecasts.
The core inflation, which excludes food and energy, showed an annual increase of 2.6%, slightly below the 2.7% expected, and a monthly rise of 0.2%. In other words, no unpleasant surprises, but no clear sign of accelerated disinflation either.
For the markets, these numbers reinforce the prevailing scenario: a Federal Reserve maintaining the status quo in the short term.
An Immediate Bullish Reaction on Bitcoin
Before the release, Bitcoin was trading just below $92,000. Upon reading the data, it immediately jumped to $92,500. Over 24 hours, the asset has seen an increase of around 1.7%.
This type of swift reaction has become typical. Bitcoin is increasingly acting as a macro-sensitive asset, reacting in real-time to US economic statistics, much like stock indices or bond yields.
The traditional markets also responded accordingly. US index futures contracts rose by about 0.3%, while the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.17%, indicating a slight easing in monetary tightening expectations.
The Fed Under the Spotlight
Following these figures, the implied market probabilities indicate approximately 95% chance that the Fed will leave its rates unchanged at its January meeting. This near certainty partly explains the current mild volatility in risky assets, including crypto.
For Bitcoin, the message is twofold. On one hand, the absence of inflation surprise reduces the risk of unexpected monetary tightening. On the other, the persistence of inflation around 2.7% limits the prospects of rapid rate cuts, restraining excessive enthusiasm.
A Market Still in a Precarious Balance
Tuesday’s sequence well illustrates the current state of the crypto market: constructive yet nervous. Bitcoin remains firmly above key psychological thresholds, but each bullish move is quickly tested by profit-taking.
In the short term, upcoming macroeconomic data and Fed communications will remain crucial. As long as the scenario of stable monetary policy prevails, Bitcoin maintains a favorable base. However, the episode serves as a reminder: at these price levels, volatility is never far away, and the slightest surprise can be enough to trigger sharp movements.
