Bitcoin starts the week on a calmer note, trading around $89,700, as global markets cautiously embrace risk. This calmness comes amidst a unique backdrop: gold has just set a new historical record above $4,380 per ounce, while Asian stocks are making significant gains, fueled by a renewed sense of macroeconomic optimism.
Gold in Euphoria, Strong Macro Signal
The performance of gold clearly dominates the macro landscape. The precious metal is on track to have its best year since 1979, supported by sustained central bank purchases and continuous flows into gold-backed ETFs.
This surge in gold does not always come at the expense of risky assets. On the contrary, it coexists with a rise in Asian equity markets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is up by more than 1%, driven by technology stocks, following the rebound seen on Wall Street last week. US futures are also in the green, helping to stabilize overall sentiment.
Japan in the Spotlight
Asia, however, is experiencing contrasting dynamics. Japan is attracting attention after the recent rate hike by the Bank of Japan, which pushed bond yields to multi-year highs. The yen strengthened after official warnings against excessive exchange rate movements, marking a gradual shift after years of ultra-accommodative policy.
This monetary normalization in Japan is reshaping international flows, without causing an immediate shock to global risky assets.
Bitcoin Supported by Institutional Flows, Hindered by Liquidity
On the Bitcoin front, the underlying signals remain positive. According to K33 Research, long-term holders are nearing the end of an extended distribution phase. Simultaneously, institutional buyers are now absorbing more BTC than miners are producing, despite a correction of over 30% from October peaks. Corporate treasuries and ETFs continue to accumulate, even in a still hesitant market.
In the short term, caution prevails. Year-end liquidity remains low, and the gradual deleveraging of the market limits the extent of rebounds. Bitcoin is thus navigating between two forces: a more favorable macro environment, driven by rate cut expectations and demand for safe-haven assets, and the still visible scars of a harsh fourth quarter.
The market seems to be breathing, without being ready to boldly surge towards new highs.
