The world of crypto finance is entering a new phase of expansion. Prediction markets, once considered a niche area, are now a strategic battlefield where capital, data, and information converge. And a significant player is taking a serious interest: Galaxy Digital. Mike Novogratz aims to play a major role in this arena, not as a mere spectator. His goal: to become one of the key liquidity providers for Polymarket and Kalshi, the two platforms dominating the sector with a combined volume surpassing $42.4 billion.
When an established crypto institution like Galaxy Digital enters a market, it’s not merely to test the waters. Even though Novogratz speaks of ‘small-scale experiments,’ all signs point to a gradual ramp-up of activity. The company is preparing for a broader liquidity deployment, a crucial tool to facilitate market efficiency, stabilize prices, and attract new users.
Polymarket vs Kalshi: the Battle of Liquidity
Polymarket and Kalshi operate on a simple principle: ‘yes/no’ contracts whose price reflects the probability of an event. A minimalist yet highly effective mechanism at the intersection of information and trading. Polymarket initially surged ahead with the U.S. elections, fueled by a strongly decentralized approach. But the dynamics have shifted. Since September, CFTC-regulated Kalshi has dominated monthly volumes. Strict regulation, but a decisive advantage: institutional trust.
Galaxy Digital isn’t picking a side. The group is in talks with both giants. A pragmatic choice: these platforms complement each other and structure a rapidly evolving market that extends well beyond politics.
Information becomes an Asset
Prediction markets are no longer limited to betting on a vote, a game, or an economic decision. They are now true ‘information markets,’ as highlighted by Bernstein analysts. From economy to culture, corporate activity to financial indicators, anything can become a tradable asset. And the demand is skyrocketing.
A market that directly converts knowledge into price naturally attracts professional investors, quants, and now institutional players like Galaxy Digital. Recent partnerships confirm this: Google Finance, the NHL, and even Galaxy Digital are now collaborating with Polymarket and Kalshi. This level of adoption marks a turning point.
Prediction Markets: A Sector Attracting Giants
The movement goes far beyond Galaxy. Gemini is preparing its own platform. CME Group, a heavyweight in traditional finance, is also advancing in this area. When Wall Street and crypto exchanges start pushing in the same direction, it’s usually a sign that a new market is gearing up to scale up.
Prediction markets are leaving the fringes. They are becoming a financial tool, an investment product, a social barometer, and perhaps soon a central infrastructure for digital finance. Galaxy Digital understands this: information has become monetizable, and whoever brings liquidity controls a significant part of the game.
