MSCI could exclude Strategy from its indices as early as January 15, 2026, a decision that would force between 1.5 and 2.8 billion dollars in mechanical sales and push MSTR into extreme volatility.
Strategy Out of Indices? When MSCI Shuffles the Deck
The pressure is mounting around Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). The stock has plummeted, investors are worried, and a countdown has begun: on January 15, 2026, MSCI could kick the company out of its flagship indices. For a company whose valuation now hinges on a massive bet on Bitcoin, the impact could be severe.
The MSCI rules are clear: a company must remain… a company. Not a quasi-ETF, not a holding, not a disguised fund. With over 77%, and by some estimates, over 90% of assets now composed of Bitcoin, Strategy is dangerously flirting with the limit.
If MSCI rules against MSTR, the consequences will be immediate: passive funds that track these indices will be forced to sell. And the estimates are staggering: between 1.5 and 2.8 billion dollars in forced sales for MSCI trackers. Some analysts, more radical, even suggest a potential greater impact by cumulating the domino effect on other indices and quantitative managers.
A massive exit is never neutral. It can dry up liquidity, increase volatility, and transform MSTR from a mainstream stock to a niche Bitcoin vehicle.
The Market Panics, Saylor Responds
The stock has already lost over 40% in two sessions. But Michael Saylor, he, does not falter. True to his stance, he insists that Strategy is neither a fund, nor a trust, nor a holding:
We are a publicly traded operational company, with a $500 million software business and a unique treasury strategy using Bitcoin as productive capital.
In this narrative, MSTR is not a liability waiting for an upturn, but a financial player creating bitcoinized products impossible to replicate through an ETF or trust. To support this claim, Saylor highlights his five issuances of “digital credit securities” launched this year, STRK, STRF, STRD, STRC, STR, totaling 7.7 billion dollars in notional value. His underlying message: no passive entity can compete with this architecture.
A Model Reaching a Breaking Point?
For investors, one question reigns: is this the end of the model of issuing shares, buying Bitcoin, and repeating?
If the exclusion materializes, Strategy could lose one of its pillars: easy access to passive flows that stabilize its shareholder base. Without this support, each new offering could become more complex, dilutive, expensive. And a MSTR excluded from major indices would resemble more of a GBTC 2.0 than a tech company listed.
A Battle of Perception, but a Colossal Stakes
Maximalists see the current fall as an opportunity, recalling that every episode of forced sales has always been absorbed. The more cautious see it as the first true regulatory earthquake of a strategy too dependent on Bitcoin. The deadline of January 15 will decide if MSTR remains a player on the Nasdaq… or becomes the largest synthetic Bitcoin product ever traded.
Between Saylor’s unwavering conviction and the mechanical realities of indices, one certainty remains: the corporate-Bitcoin strategy is entering its riskiest phase since 2020. The ultimate test is approaching.
