Saylor denies any BTC sales and announces new purchases starting Monday, reaffirming an unchanged accumulation strategy despite the current volatility.
Discounting like this sends a dual message to investors: a potential buying opportunity, but also a test of the strength of Saylor’s ‘bitcoin-only’ narrative.
The pressure is mounting on Strategy: the stock has dropped by 35% since January and mNAV has fallen below 1, indicating that the market values the company less than its own bitcoins.
Strategy: an Unwavering Accumulation Strategy
Michael Saylor wasted no time addressing the rumors. During a late morning appearance on CNBC, the face of Strategy made a bold statement:
We are buying Bitcoin. We will announce our next purchases on Monday morning.
No nuance, no ambiguity.
While the market is in turmoil, with BTC flirting with $97,000 and Strategy stock continuing to plummet below $200, some observers claimed to have noticed Bitcoin outflows from the company’s wallets. This was interpreted as a discreet sale, fueling the panic. Saylor swiftly debunked it: “There is no truth to this rumor.”
And the message goes further: the company is even accelerating its purchases. According to him, the weekend’s on-chain activity should “speak for itself.”
A Nervous Market, But an Intact Narrative
The situation reflects the current atmosphere. Prices are dropping fast, interpretations even faster. Yet, Saylor remains steadfast in his approach: zoom out, long term, unwavering convictions.
He pointed out that Bitcoin was trading between $55,000 and $65,000 just over a year ago. Even after the correction, he believes the current level is still an excellent entry point.
While Saylor’s message remains the same, Strategy’s situation is deteriorating, and not in a positive direction. The stock has lost nearly 35% since the beginning of the year, a sharp decline for a company solely valued on its ability to accumulate and hold BTC.
But another indicator is causing a stir: the mNAV (market Net Asset Value). This metric compares the company’s market value to the actual value of its Bitcoin assets. For the first time this year, the mNAV has fallen below 1.
In essence, the market now values Strategy less than the worth of its own bitcoins. A rare, almost paradoxical situation for a company built as a vehicle for BTC exposure. This indicates that investor confidence in the overall strategy, governance, or execution capability has weakened to the point of creating a discount.
Implications Moving Forward
A mNAV below 1 puts pressure on Saylor, even though he claims to remain unfazed. For traders, the message is twofold: On one hand, Strategy potentially becomes a ‘bargain play,’ valued cheaper than its bitcoins. On the other hand, the market sends a warning, as if testing the resilience of Saylor’s ‘bitcoin-only’ narrative.
Monday morning will see intense scrutiny of Strategy’s next on-chain movements like never before. If the company indeed continues to accumulate at a rapid pace, the market could view it as a sign of strength. Otherwise, the pressure on MSTR will only increase.
