A single post on Truth Social was enough to awaken the markets. Donald Trump announced the payment of a “tariff dividend” of at least $2,000 to the majority of Americans, funded by customs duties. And immediately, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana rebounded, erasing part of a dark week in the crypto markets.
The “Tariff Dividend” to Stimulate Consumption
According to the American president, the United States now generates “trillions of dollars” thanks to the customs duties imposed since the beginning of his term. A portion of these revenues, he promised, will be used to reduce the national debt of $37 trillion and to finance a direct payment to households.
A dividend of at least $2,000 per person (excluding high incomes) will be paid to everyone.
A few minutes after the announcement, the markets reacted. Bitcoin rose by 1.9% to rise above $103,000, Ethereum surged by 4.7% beyond $3,500, and Solana progressed by 2.5%, crossing the $160 mark.
A Rebound after a Challenging Week
This recovery is welcome: the market was coming off a sharp drop last week. Despite a continuation of this rebound above $106,000, Bitcoin still remains slightly down over seven days. But the market seems to anticipate the effect of a potential influx of liquidity. If American households do indeed receive this “tariff dividend,” some of these funds could end up on exchange platforms, a scenario that particularly appeals to crypto traders.
A Politically Explosive Plan
One detail remains: Donald Trump cannot trigger this payment alone. Any federal expenditure must be approved by Congress. However, debates around tariffs and protectionist measures deeply divide Washington. Andy Constan, CEO of Damped Spring Advisors, emphasized that this plan could not materialize without a law passed by both chambers.
Even on a budgetary level, the calculation seems fragile. According to Erica York, vice president of the Tax Foundation, the new tariffs have brought in approximately $120 billion so far, far from the $300 billion needed to pay $2,000 to 150 million adults. And if children are included, the bill would increase further.
Worse: once indirect economic effects are taken into account, every dollar of tariff revenue wipes out about 24 cents from tax revenues elsewhere. As a result, the actual net revenue from tariffs would not exceed $90 billion.
Crypto, the Primary Beneficiary of the Trump Buzz
Although the promise seems difficult to fulfill, it was enough to revive investors’ appetite. The crypto markets, often sensitive to political announcements and the prospect of monetary stimulus, seized the opportunity. A new proof that, in this market, the words of a president can sometimes weigh as heavily as an economic plan.
