Elon Musk met on hold his ‘America Party’ project to avoid dividing the Republican electorate and strengthen his ties with vice president JD Vance, seen as the favorite for 2028.
Musk could financially support Vance, given a 53% chance of winning the Republican nomination on Polymarket, with a 28% chance of winning the presidency against Gavin Newsom.
Musk’s withdrawal eases Republicans before the 2026 midterms, as his initial project stemmed from a budgetary clash with Donald Trump, revealing an open political rivalry.
Elon Musk drops the idea of a new party
Elon Musk is not one to back down. Yet, just a month after announcing his intention to found his ‘America Party,’ the billionaire has put the project on hold. The reason: the risk of fragmenting the Republican electorate and alienating JD Vance, the current vice president and rising figure within the party. Musk now prefers to focus on his businesses and maintain close contact with the potential future favorite of the Republicans for 2028.
“Creating a parallel party is siphoning off Republican votes and handing victory to the Democrats on a silver platter,” Musk reportedly told his inner circle, as per WSJ. The strategy is shifting: less political ego, more electoral calculation.
2028 goal: Vance, the horse to bet on
Musk is said to be ready to financially support JD Vance if he officially enters the race for the White House in 2028. A logical bet: Vance is seen as the most credible heir to Donald Trump, without carrying his explosive baggage. On Polymarket, the trending prediction platform, Vance is given 53% odds of securing the Republican nomination, far ahead of his competitors.
Another key data point: online betting estimates his chances of winning the presidency at 28%, with Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, in second place at 18%. In other words, Musk is not taking a leap into the unknown.
The weight of the 2026 midterms
Musk’s decision brings relief to Republicans. The Tesla chief had threatened to target key seats in the midterm elections, which could have weakened the party in an already tight battle. According to Polymarket, current projections give the Senate to the Republicans and the House to the Democrats in 2026. A split over an ‘America Party’ could have disrupted this delicate balance.
Musk vs Trump: an open rivalry
The idea of a new party originates from a clash with Donald Trump. The cause? The ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act,’ a massive spending bill estimated at +$3.3 trillion over ten years. Trump supported it, Musk deemed it catastrophic for the public debt and contrary to his stint at the Department of Government Efficiency. Result: public insults, clash on X, and Tesla stock dropping over 20% when Musk polled users on creating a party.
The fracture remains deep. Trump accuses Musk of having ‘derailed,’ while Musk believes the former president is sabotaging America’s fiscal future. But politically, the SpaceX chief seems to prefer betting on a more presentable ‘Trump 2.0’: JD Vance.
And now?
There’s nothing to exclude the possibility of Musk reviving his ‘America Party’ if the Republican dynamics disappoint in 2026. But for now, his strategy is clear: focus his billions on his businesses and discreetly lay the groundwork for 2028.
