Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High at $109,767, Supported by Over 30% Rebound Since April and Favorable Geopolitical Environment.
Almost Perfect Setup according to Bitfinex
“Almost perfect setup.” This is how Jag Kooner, director of derivatives at Bitfinex, summarizes the current context. According to him, the combination of the Russia-Ukraine calm, the pause on US tariffs, and regulatory advances around stablecoins paved the way for this surge.
Technically, the key levels of $107,000 to $108,000 were crucial. The clear breakthrough opens the door to a target between $114,000 and $120,000 in the short term. Options markets are anticipating a potential breakout within the next four weeks, in an environment where funding rates remain neutral. However, caution is advised: compressed volatility could play both ways if a regulatory or macro shock occurs.
Decoupling from Stocks Intensifies
This new peak comes amid an increasing decoupling trend between Bitcoin and US stock markets. The threat of a new trade war, uncertainties related to monetary policy, and Trump’s economic choices are pushing investors to seek alternatives. According to Standard Chartered, this reallocation dynamic is fully in favor of digital assets.
Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of crypto research for the bank, notes that the term premium of US Treasury bonds, historically correlated with BTC, is at its highest level in 12 years. Whale accumulation remains strong, and buying pressure is increasing on the US side, according to their hourly analysis. The bank maintains a target of $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Trump, Congress, and Cycle Break
For analysts at K33, the mantra is clear: Hold in May and stay. Unlike the sluggish summers of previous cycles, 2025 could defy expectations thanks to the favorable announcements expected from the Trump administration. Some even consider this dynamic as “Trump-driven,” between deregulation, pro-crypto rhetoric, and the gradual isolation of US markets.
Ki Young Ju (CryptoQuant), formerly bearish, now admits to being wrong. The classic profit-taking cycle by whales seems to be outdated. “The market is changing. The old mechanics are giving way to a new wave of liquidity, stemming from the convergence between crypto and TradFi,” he writes.
However, there is a lingering concern in Washington. Congress recently slowed down the adoption of the stablecoin bill. For Matt Hougan (Bitwise), it is urgent that at least one crypto law be passed. Without it, progress remains vulnerable to potential political reversals.
