Donald Trump’s tariff increases on mining equipment from Asia are threatening the profitability of American miners, who are still dependent on suppliers like Bitmain.
Russia, supported by Chinese capital and less affected by logistical surcharges, could take advantage of these policies to increase its share of the global hashrate.
Facing uncertainties, countries like Canada, Argentina, or Ethiopia are attracting investments, while sector players are demanding exemptions to preserve the American ecosystem.
Russia Benefits From Bitcoin Mining Amid Trump’s Tariffs
As Donald Trump aims to make the United States a Bitcoin mining giant, his trade policies may have the opposite effect. Targeted are tariff increases on equipment from Asia, which could make Russia the big winner in a new global redistribution of computing power.
The United States Still Dependent on Chinese Equipment
As of now, we are facing tariffs of 12.6% on units shipped from Asia to the United States.
We expected these tariffs to increase in July, rising from 26.6% to 38.6% depending on the country of origin. It is possible that these tariffs may be renegotiated before the 90-day pause.
Ethan Vera, COO of Luxor Technology
Most mining machines, especially the Bitmain’s Antminer, which controls over 80% of the market, are designed and assembled outside the United States. As a result, import tariffs, which could reach up to 38.6% this summer, threaten the profitability of American miners. According to Luxor, a key player in the sector, domestic demand is already under pressure, and machines could soon be redirected to other markets.
Luxor’s COO, Ethan Vera, warns: if these tariffs are applied without concessions, Russia could emerge as the main beneficiary. Less exposed to logistical surcharges, supported by Chinese capital seeking outlets outside the United States, Moscow could capture an increasing share of the global hashrate.
Canada, Northern Europe, and South America in the Race
Besides Russia, other regions are positioning themselves. From Canada to Ethiopia, Argentina, or Paraguay, countries with abundant cheap electricity are drawing attention. American and European investors are already redirecting their flows, anticipating a new cycle of mining relocation.
BitFuFu, a major player in cloud mining, confirms that its development plans in the United States remain unchanged, but decisions are being made. Its American centers are already running at full capacity, but the company is closely monitoring tariff developments. The same sentiment is echoed at Bitdeer, which focuses on a gradual deployment of ‘Made in USA’ machines while rebalancing its global operations.
Towards a Global Hashrate Reconfiguration
If American hardware production is starting to emerge, Luxor estimates that it will take several years before the supply chain is truly localized. For now, the dependence on Asian components remains total. In the meantime, tariff increases are raising the cost of equipment and slowing the expansion of less competitive miners.
Yet, the mining market evolves rapidly: cost increases could also reduce overall difficulty, improving margins for the most resilient. Luxor even advocates for a tariff exemption similar to that granted to computer servers to protect the national ecosystem.
Customs Seizures and Baseless Suspicions
Another threat to miners is the intensification of border controls. Massive seizures have been reported, especially on Bitmain’s equipment, due to components linked to Chinese companies under sanctions. Bitdeer, listed on the Nasdaq, denies any fraud or underreporting, ensuring strict compliance with US requirements.
