Robinhood accelerates by acquiring MIAXdx to operate directly under CFTC license, aiming to capture the full value of prediction markets and establish dominance among its 14 million active traders.
Prediction market volumes are surging, with over 9 billion contracts and monthly growth already rivaling Kalshi, while Coinbase plans a similar move for December 17.
The market is polarizing between liquidity providers and distribution giants, with Robinhood potentially becoming the central player in the sector thanks to its hybrid model and estimated $160 per share potential.
Une avance commerciale qui change l’équation
Robinhood is stepping up its game. After dominating volumes through its collaboration with Kalshi, the platform now aims to capture a much larger market share by launching its own CFTC infrastructure. The message behind this move is clear: Robinhood no longer just wants to distribute; it wants to produce, settle, and capture value.
The company takes control of MIAXdx, an entity already licensed by the CFTC. This pivot gives it what crypto players have been seeking for years: a direct gateway into the regulated U.S. derivatives market. The timing is significant. With over 14 million active traders and a user base accustomed to fast trading, Robinhood holds a unique distribution lever to push a product as viral as prediction markets.
Une activité qui explose
Since its launch, Robinhood’s prediction markets offering has become its most dynamic business line. Over 9 billion contracts executed by over a million users, a run rate exceeding 300 million, and a continuously growing momentum. Q3 already recorded 2.3 billion contracts. October added 2.5 billion in volume, accounting for 57% of Kalshi’s monthly activity.
This traction highlights a phenomenon: prediction markets are no longer niche. They increasingly resemble a mass product, aligned with retail culture, quick to consume, easy to understand, and fueled by daily events.
Coinbase prepares its response
The sector is not standing still. Coinbase appears set to unveil its own prediction markets platform at its event on December 17. Modules uncovered in the app code suggest the exchange is preparing an integrated offering combining predictive markets and stock trading.
The big question remains: will Coinbase distribute markets from a partner or launch its own liquidity internally? The choice will determine the margin, volume, and regulatory battle in the months ahead.
Un paysage concurrentiel qui se redessine
Meanwhile, Polymarket is rejoining the race. An amended decision by the CFTC now allows it to operate through U.S. broker-dealers and FCMs. After years of forced exile, the platform aims to rebuild an aggressive U.S. presence.
Kalshi still holds the edge in overall volumes: $4.4 billion in October compared to $3 billion for Polymarket. But the tides could turn swiftly, especially with Robinhood entering as a liquidity creator rather than just a distributor.
Vers un marché à deux vitesses
Bernstein analysts identify a strategic divide between liquidity platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket) and distribution giants (Robinhood, Coinbase). Robinhood is ideally positioned: a massive audience, high-frequency trading culture, and an app already at the forefront of retail trends.
The analysts maintain their ‘outperform rating’ for Robinhood, with a $160 target, representing a 38% potential increase. If the platform can successfully combine distribution and contract production, it could become the epicenter of prediction markets in the U.S.
