JPMorgan launches a structured note indexed to the IBIT ETF, designed to track the four-year cycle of Bitcoin with a likely drop in 2026 and a surge in 2028.
Tailored for the halving cycle
Historically, Bitcoin follows a familiar pattern of phases: euphoria in the halving year, continued upward trend the following year, then a decline two years later. With the last halving in 2024, many anticipate a challenging 2026 and a new peak in 2028. Despite some investors questioning the relevance of these cycles, JPMorgan fully embraces this market outlook.
The bank offers an instrument that leverages the natural rhythm of the crypto cycle. The idea: provide an early exit in 2026 with a guaranteed minimum return of 16% if the IBIT ETF reaches the set level. Otherwise, investors stay invested until 2028, where performance can soar.
2026: A guaranteed floor if conditions align
If IBIT reaches or surpasses JPMorgan’s target price by late 2026, the note is automatically redeemed. Investors walk away with their capital plus a 16% return. This allows for gains before 2028, while benefiting from a potential early surge if Bitcoin surprises on the upside.
If performance remains insufficient, the note continues. No penalty. Just an extended bet on the strength of the next bull run.
2028: Potentially unlimited gains
Where the product truly shines is in the long scenario. If IBIT exceeds the set target by late 2028, gains are amplified: 1.5 times the initial investment, uncapped.
This structure appeals to institutional investors seeking crypto exposure without directly managing underlying volatility. The product transforms Bitcoin’s cyclical dynamics into a readable and structured strategy.
The safety net… and its limits
The note provides capital protection as long as the IBIT ETF does not drop more than 30% by the end of 2028. If the decline is contained, investors recoup their investment. But a fall beyond this threshold results in proportional losses.
JPMorgan does not hide the risk: if IBIT plunges significantly, capital can be significantly reduced, or even wiped out. A clear reminder that even wrapped in a structured product, Bitcoin remains a high-risk asset.
A product designed for institutions seeking perfect timing
This note reflects Wall Street’s evolution in the face of crypto cycles. Rather than directly betting on volatility, banks are constructing hybrid strategies tailored to a clientele looking to capture Bitcoin’s growth without enduring its potential chaos.
